UPSC Prelims 2024 took place on June 16, and thousands of queries are pouring in regarding possible cut-off marks for this year. Well, the UPSC has yet to declare the official pass marks. However, we will provide you with estimated cut-offs by analyzing past trends and some influencing factors. Let us try to make a quick calculated guess. It will help you calculate your chances of clearing the CSE prelims.

Quick Facts About UPSC Prelims 2024

• Date of exam: 16th June, 2024
• Time: first shift - 9:30 am to 11: 30 am, second shift - 2:30 pm to 4:30 pm
• Number of candidates attended: 5 to 6 lakhs approximately (unofficial estimation)
• Exam papers: General Studies (Paper-I) & General Studies or CSAT (Paper-II)
• Declared vacancies: 1056
• Number of questions: 100 questions in each paper
• Scoring: 2 marks for each correct answer, -0.67 marks for each incorrect answer
• CSAT qualifying marks: 33%
• Cutoff marks for Paper-I: Yet to be declared by UPSC
• Result to be announced by: The first or second week of July 2024

Analysis of the UPSC Prelims 2024 Paper

Here is the question pattern of the UPSC CSE 2024 Prelims paper:

• The number of questions having only one correct answer to two pairs of right choices was 17.
• Questions with only one correct option were 27
• Questions with multiple statements (1 & 2) were 13
• Questions with multiple correct options were 43

Difficulty-level

• Easy factual questions - 52
• Moderate - 34
• Difficult - 14

Subject-wise Question Distribution

• History - 12
• Geography - 18
• Polity & Governance + Social Justice - 21
• Economy - 15
• Science and Technology - 12
• IR/IO - 6
• Environment - 12
• Defence - 4

Nature of the Questions

The 2024 prelims paper is moderately challenging and more predictable than the ones from 2023 and 2022 since it depends less on random sources and more on regular ones.  The overall composition of questions struck a balance between traditional knowledge and strategic answering. 

• This year, questions were more from traditional subjects compared to the dynamic current affairs.
• Geography questions had more focus on world and India mapping, highlighting the importance of knowing various geographical locations.
• Environmental issues and sustainability related topics received significant importance.
• The number of complex questions has gone down. Candidates could have answered correctly based on deductions.
• The number of difficult and random questions has gone down
• Questions from the sports and awards section were absent
• Modern History, Science & Technology maintained a stable presence
• The dominance of Polity questions continued
• The Economy-related questions covered various aspects comprehensively
• Defense was introduced as a new section in the wake of the evolving geopolitical landscape and national security concerns.
• Current affairs questions remained more or less easy.
• A new question type was introduced - matrix-matching question. It is intended to test the candidate’s ability to correlate multiple pieces of information.
• Questions on basic understanding of various subjects received significant emphasis.
• Standard CSE reference books proved more valuable

Trends in UPSC Prelims Cut-off Marks in Paper-I

The yearly trend will help you understand how cut-offs vary across different categories.

Category	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
General category (GC)	75.41	88.22	87.54	92.51	98	98
Economically Weaker Section (EWS)	68.02	82.83	80.14	77.55	90	NA
Other Backward Castes (OBC)	74.75	87.54	89.12	89.12	95.34	96.66
ST	47.82	69.35	70.71	68.71	77.34	83.34
SC	59.25	74.08	75.41	74.84	82	84
PWD 1	40.4	49.84	68.02	70.06	53.34	73.34
PWD 2	47.13	58.59	67.33	63.94	44.66	53.34
PWD 3	40.4	40.4	43.09	40.82	61.34	40
PWD 5	33.68	41.76	45.8	42.86	61.34	45.34

What are the Factors Influencing UPSC Cut-off Marks?

The most critical factors affecting UPSC cut-off marks every year are:

Number of vacancies declared for the year

• Fewer vacancies mean higher competition among candidates taking the exam, provided the number of candidates remains roughly similar.
• Higher competition means each candidate needs to secure high marks and thus higher cut-off marks for the year.
• If the percentage increase in vacancies is at par with the percentage increase in the number of candidates, cut-off marks may remain the same.

Difficulty level of the questions

• If the difficulty level of questions increases, cut-off marks decrease as candidates' chances of scoring average marks go down.
• So, a tougher exam pushes down cut-off marks.

Performance of the cohort

• However, despite tough questions, if the overall performance of the cohort remains unaffected, the cut-off marks may not go down. 

UPSC Prelims Cut-off 2024: IASGyan’s Estimate

Based on the level of difficulty and our post-exam interaction with candidates, we believe cut-offs for UPSC Prelims 2024 will remain high across categories compared to previous years. The cut-off for the general category may remain in the range of 102 ± 5.  

How Does Knowing the Cut-off Mark Help You Measure Your Performance in UPSC Prelims?

Knowing the correct cut-off mark for the UPSC Prelims is essential as it helps candidates in several ways.

• Understand where you stand in the competition: Anyone appearing in a competitive exam possesses an idea of their individual performance. But cut-off marks help them preempt their chances of success. If they suspect scoring less than the estimated cut-off, candidates can start preparation for the next year without waiting for the UPSC to declare results. It saves time for preparation.
• Gauge the minimum preparation required in any competitive exam: Despite yearly variance, the cut-off mark gives an idea of the average level of preparation you must have to clear the exam in a specific category.
• Set a realistic goal throughout your UPSC preparation. No preparation can be sufficient without a realistic aim. Knowledge of cut-off marks helps set achievable objectives while preparing for the CSE.

Conclusion

Our estimates are entirely predictive. The aim is to help fresh candidates make more informative decisions about their future UPSC preparation. For existing candidates, these estimates will help them find areas they must work on for their next attempts. Stay motivated and focused. Take more mock tests. Practice emerging question types and strengthen your foundational understanding of different topics. Check IAS Gyan for the UPSC Prelims test series.