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Context: Foreign ministers from member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are meeting to discuss an intensifying crisis in Myanmar, 18 months after agreeing a peace plan with its military rulers.

 

Details:

• ASEAN's peace effort is the only official diplomatic process in play, but it has so far been a failure, with the junta unwilling to implement a so-called "five-point consensus" that it agreed to with ASEAN in April 2021.
• ASEAN holds its annual summit next month and will be joined by numerous world leaders. The United Nations has backed the ASEAN plan, but international patience is wearing thin, with suspicion the generals are paying lip service and buying time to consolidate power and crush opponents before a 2023 election, knowing they could then control the outcome.
• For ASEAN to remain credible as a mediator, it may need to present a new strategy before the summit.

 

What is the consensus?

• The agreement includes an immediate end of hostilities, all parties engaging in constructive dialogue, allowing an ASEAN envoy to mediate and meet all stakeholders, and for ASEAN to provide humanitarian assistance.
• So far, the only success cited by ASEAN chair Cambodia has been allowing some humanitarian access, but that has been limited and conditional.
• ASEAN has had two Myanmar special envoys and both have expressed frustration with the junta for denying them access to other stakeholders, including deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is on trial, accused of multiple crimes.
• The junta has refused to engage opponents or civil society groups and has outlawed a shadow National Unity Government (NUG) and an alliance of sidelined lawmakers, designating them “terrorists”. It has vowed to destroy resistance groups but its offensives have killed a large number of civilians and prompted frequent international condemnation.

 

Junta’s response:

• The military government has accused critical ASEAN members of meddling and warned them not to engage with the NUG. In August it cited “notable progress” on the peace plan, without providing specifics, but said its commitment would be determined by developments on the ground.
• It has accused its opponents of trying to sabotage the ASEAN plan and has justified military offensives as necessary to secure the country and enable political talks.
• Instead of advocating for the five-point ASEAN plan, the generals have instead been pushing a five-step roadmap of their own towards a new election, with few similarities.

 

What approaches might ASEAN take?

• Suspending Myanmar as an ASEAN member would be extremely unlikely, as would any trade sanctions, and the junta has demonstrated it will not respond to threats. Modifying the plan could be interpreted as concessions to the military.
• Malaysia’s foreign minister Saifuddin Abdullah has said the consensus must be seriously reviewed for its relevance “and if it should be replaced with something better”.
• Singapore said the military had disrespected ASEAN’s peace effort and engaging with the junta had limited value without progress.
• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said he would be proposing a new approach on Myanmar that “at the very least” would bring the junta or its representatives to the table. His strategy may meet resistance, however.
• ASEAN has so far opted to bar the generals from key summits and invited non-political representatives instead, which the junta has declined.

Impacts of chaos in Myanmar:

 

The fallout in India:

• India has walked a fine line between expressing concern at the “interruption” of democracy and brutal steps such as the gunning down of protesters and execution of four democracy activists, and engaging with the junta to protect its “vital interests”.
• At some point however, India may have to consider if those vital interests are indeed being served.
• New Delhi’s main justification for engaging with the Myanmar military is that it ensures the security of India’s Northeast — it has persuaded the generals to deny safe havens to insurgent groups.
• But there are reports that some Northeastern groups, notably the Manipur PLA, have been roped in to put down the civilian uprising in Sagaing Region.
• For India, the main concern is the influx of refugees into Mizoram.
• India’s 1,643-km border with Myanmar stretches from the India-Myanmar-China trijunction in Arunachal Pradesh to the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh trijunction in Mizoram.
• Border regulations have been formulated keeping in view ethnic and family ties across the international boundary.
• Under a Free Movement Regime (FMR), citizens of the two countries living within 16 km on their sides of the border, can cross over with a permit and stay up to two weeks at a time.
• The coup and resultant unrest have upended Indian projects in Myanmar such as the trilateral highway to Thailand, and the Kaladan waterway project. These projects were already well behind their deadlines, and their completion looks farther away now.

 

Russia, China, the West:

• Australia, Canada, the US, the UK and the EU have imposed sanctions against the junta, but with international attention divided between the war in Ukraine, the US-China standoff, and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, no further ideas have emanated from the West on how to recover Myanmar from the military.
• Despite ASEAN’s obvious failure, a “regional” solution is still believed to be the best bet.
• At the meeting, the grouping’s foreign ministers called for “concrete, practical and time-bound actions” to strengthen the implementation of a five-point consensus reached in April last year to bring Myanmar back to the democratic path.
• The consensus called for cessation of violence; dialogue among concerned parties; mediation by an ASEAN special envoy; provision of humanitarian aid; and a visit by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties.
• Meanwhile, Myanmar continues to depend on China and Russia for military hardware and oil supplies.
• The regime has also set up a Russian Oil Purchasing Committee to oversee the buying, importing, and transport of fuel “at reasonable prices based on Myanmar’s needs
• China has also stepped into the economic vacuum left by the west.The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is going ahead despite local pushback at places. China is now a major cross-border supplier of electricity to Myanmar

 

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

• In 1967, the leaders of 5 countries:Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed a document in Bangkok, Thailand to establish the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
  • At Present ASEAN comprises 10 Countries: Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam
• ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member statesin Southeast Asia, which promotes inter-governmental cooperation and facilitates economic, political, security, military, educational, and socio-cultural integration between its members and countries in the Asia-Pacific.
  • The aims and purpose of the ASEAN are to ensure cooperation in the economic, social, cultural, technical, educational and other fields, and promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law and upholding the principles of the United Nations Charter.
• The motto of ASEAN is “One Vision, One Identity, One Community”.
• ASEAN is 3rd the largest market in the world, larger than the EU and North American markets.
  • It is the 6th largest economy in the world and 3rd in Asia.
• ASEAN Secretariat is in Jakarta, Indonesia.
• Chairmanship of ASEAN rotates annually, based on the alphabetical order of the English names of Member States.
• In 2006, ASEAN was given observer status at the United Nations General Assembly.

 

Achievements of ASEAN:

• Southeast Asia presents a diverse and complex region where every major culture and civilization of the world lives together peacefully.
• ASEAN acts as a platform to resolve disputes among member nations.
• Several Regional multilateral platforms were created such as the Annual Ministerial Meeting (AMM), and Asia-Pacific Economic Partnership (APEC) to engage ASEAN with its dialogue partners. These initiatives helped ASEAN to maintain stable relations with the great powers in Asia.
• ASEAN played an important role in promoting regional peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.

 

India-ASEAN Relations:

• India began formal engagement with ASEAN in 1992 as a “Sectoral Dialogue Partner” (and subsequently as a “Dialogue Partner” in 1996.
• At the 20th Commemorative Summit Meeting in New Delhi (December 2012) India’s Dialogue Partnership was further elevated to a Strategic Partnership.
• During the 25th Commemorative Summit in New Delhi (January 2018), India and ASEAN further agreed that our Strategic Partnership will be focused on building cooperation in the maritime domain.
• The year 2022 marks 30 years of ASEAN-India relations and it has been designated as ASEAN-India Friendship Year by the leaders in October 2021.
• Engagement with ASEAN is a multi-level interaction process. At the apex is the annual summits (“ASEAN-India Summit”) supported by meetings at the Foreign Minister level (“ASEAN-India Foreign Ministers Meeting”-AIFMM.
• To support cooperation activities between ASEAN and India, Govt of India has created three funds:
  • ASEAN-India Cooperation Fund (AIF),
  • ASEAN-India Green Fund (AIGF) and
  • ASEAN-India Science and Technology Development Fund (AISTDF).
• The ‘Delhi Dialogue’ (DD) mechanism hosted by India annuallyallows the participation of think tanks,academics and prominent civil society persons from both India and the ASEAN region, in addition to government representatives, to contribute ideas and perspectives to furthering the India-ASEAN strategic partnership.
• The eсоnоmiс аnd investment relаtiоnshiр between Indiа аnd АSEАN hаs been рrоgressively improving, with АSEАN nоw being Indiа’s fоurth-lаrgest trading раrtner.
• АSEАN-Indiа соnneсtivity is а рriоrity fоr India аs аlsо the АSEАN соuntries. In  2013,  Indiа beсаme the third diаlоgue раrtner оf  АSEАN  tо initiаte аn  АSEАN  Соnneсtivity  Сооrdinаting  Соmmittee-Indiа   

 

• Indiа hаs mаde соnsiderаble рrоgress in imрlementing the Indiа-Myаnmаr-Thаilаnd  Trilаterаl  Highwаy аnd the  Kаlаdаn  Multimоdаl  Рrоjeсt,  issues relаted tо inсreаsing the mаritime аnd аir соnneсtivity between  АSEАN  аnd  Indiа аnd trаnsfоrming the соrridоrs оf соnneсtivity intо eсоnоmiс соrridоrs аre under disсussiоn.

• Indiа and АSEАN are working together on several рrоjeсts in the аreаs оf аgriсulture, sсienсe аnd teсhnоlоgy, sрасe,  envirоnment аnd сlimаte сhаnge,  humаn resоurсe develорment, сарасity building,  new аnd renewаble energy,  tourism,  рeорle-tо-рeорle соnneсtiоns аnd соnneсtivity,  аnd sо оn.

 

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/asean-meeting-myanmar-explained-8232302/