Climate forecast 2025: The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), part of the EU's Copernicus program, provides authoritative climate data and tools to support adaptation and mitigation efforts globally. Managed by ECMWF, it offers insights into climate trends, projections, and impacts, empowering informed decision-making through resources like the Interactive Climate Atlas.
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The hope of keeping global warming under the 1.5 degree Celsius limit is all but dead. The kind of emissions cuts required to keep this goal alive is unlikely to be achieved.
The year 2024 marked a grim milestone in the global fight against climate change, as the annual average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
Despite the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, insufficient climate action, widening emissions gaps and insufficient commitments at COP29 in Baku, the 1.5°C target remains virtually unattainable, underscoring the urgent need for adaptation and transformational action to mitigate the worsening climate impacts.
Unprecedented temperature rise: The planet has warmed at a much faster rate than predicted, surpassing 1.5°C in 2024, due to insufficient climate mitigation efforts.
Paris Agreement targets in jeopardy: The 1.5°C target, originally thought to be achievable, is now unattainable as there have been no significant reductions in emissions since its adoption.
Emissions reduction requirement: The IPCC reports a need for a 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to maintain hope of the 1.5°C target.
Current measures are failing: Projections show only a 2% reduction under existing policies, leaving a huge gap in emissions targets.
Missed financial commitments: COP29 in Baku failed to secure the required trillions of dollars a year for climate action, with developed countries pledging just $300 billion from 2035.
Impact on developing countries: Lack of financial resources prevents developing countries from being able to implement adaptation measures that are essential for managing climate impacts.
2024 declared warmest year: According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service run by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 2024 was expected to end with a global average temperature at least 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. .
Consistent Exceeding the Threshold: Since June 2023, monthly averages have remained above the 1.5°C threshold, signaling a worrying trend.
Weakening climate commitments: The global response to climate change remains inadequate and is expected to decline further. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, which could encourage other countries to follow suit.
Argentina Uncertainty: At COP29, Argentina raised concerns by suddenly withdrawing negotiators during the conference. Although she has denied any long-term withdrawal, there is growing frustration among developing countries about the ineffectiveness of the Paris Agreement.
Unfulfilled commitments: Developed countries have failed to deliver on promises to cut emissions, climate finance and transfer technology, leaving developing countries with little choice.
ICJ Case for Accountability: A new case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) seeks to clarify states' climate responsibilities. It is seen as a potential tool to pressure richer countries to meet their obligations.
Rising historical emissions: China, the largest current emitter, now has the second largest share of historical emissions (12%), surpassing the EU.
Limited obligations: As a developing country, China is under no obligation to reduce emissions, which have quadrupled since 1990.
Drastic cuts unlikely: The significant reductions in emissions required by the IPCC to meet the Paris Agreement targets are unlikely in the 2030-2035 time frame.
Beyond the 1.5°C target: Failure to meet the 1.5°C target does not mean the end, but highlights the urgency of moving to more sustainable practices in the future.
Fossil Fuel Transition: The phase-out of fossil fuels and the adoption of renewable energy sources after 2035 is achievable, with advances making the transition more realistic.
Overcoming technical challenges: Barriers such as renewable energy efficiency, the feasibility of carbon capture and battery storage are becoming solvable through disruptive innovations such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology.
Clean energy research focus: Research in artificial intelligence, quantum science, and biotechnology increasingly favors the development of sustainable energy solutions.
Renewable energy leadership: China has built the largest renewable energy capacity in the world, allowing it to rapidly reduce emissions once it reaches its peak.
Critical post-2030 reductions: China's large-scale emissions reductions after 2030 will be essential to meet global climate targets set for 2050.
Gradual impacts of emissions reductions: While emissions may be declining, climate impacts will persist and even intensify for decades before stabilizing.
Disproportionate impact on vulnerable nations: Small island states and developing countries face the onslaught of worsening extreme weather events, often with limited resources for resilience.
The necessity of adaptation: Short-term adaptation is essential, especially for resource-constrained developing countries that do not have the means to tackle climate challenges on their own.
Dependence on foreign aid: These countries need external financial and technological support to implement effective adaptation measures.
Global Early Warning Initiative: The World Meteorological Organization's "Early Warning for All" project aims to develop systems for forecasting weather-related disasters.
Coverage gaps: More than half the world lacks reliable early warning systems, even for common events like cyclones and heavy rainfall.
Damage minimization: Implementing robust early warning systems around the world is a basic but essential step to reduce the damage caused by escalating climate impacts.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is a key part of the European Union's Copernicus program dedicated to providing comprehensive climate information to support adaptation and mitigation policies in Europe and around the world.
Implemented by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, C3S offers free and open access to a wide range of climate data and tools based on the latest scientific research.
C3S aims to provide authoritative information on the past, present and future state of the climate.
Basic climate variables: Consistent estimates of key climate indicators.
Reanalyses: Global and regional reanalyses covering various components of the Earth system such as atmosphere, ocean, land and carbon.
Observational Products: Datasets based on observations, including gridded data and homogenized station series.
Forecasts and Projections: Multi-model seasonal forecasts and climate projections at global and regional scales. By offering detailed climate indicators, C3S helps develop adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to specific sectoral needs.
One notable tool provided by C3S is the Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas, a web application that allows users to explore and analyze past and future climate information from a variety of datasets. This tool facilitates in-depth assessment of climate trends and projections and supports informed decision-making.
Through these services and tools, C3S plays a key role in improving society's ability to understand and respond to climate variability and change.
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q.With climate models predicting significant changes by 2025, discuss the potential impacts of these forecasts on global ecosystems, food security and sustainable development. Suggest strategies India should adopt to mitigate these challenges and enhance climate resilience. (250 words) |
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