DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS 08 JUNE
DNA 8TH JUNE
INTERNATIONAL NEWS (EDITORIAL)
Cooperative security in Persian Gulf littoral
What is Persian Gulf?
The lands around the Persian Gulf are shared by eight countries- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Why is it so significant?
-These countries are major producers of crude oil and natural gas and thereby contribute critically to the global economy and to their own prosperity.
-The area has approximately two-thirds of the world’s estimated proven oil reserves and one-third of the world’s estimated proven natural gas reserves.
-This factor has added to their geopolitical significance.
-A considerable amount of sea trade passes through the gulf, leading to heavy traffic in the region.
Power play and security of the region
- For eight decades prior to 1970, this body of water was a closely guarded British lake, administered in good measure by imperial civil servants from India.
- When that era ended, regional players sought to assert themselves.
- Imperatives of rivalry and cooperation became evident and, as a United States State Department report put it in 1973, ‘The upshot of all these cross currents is that the logic of Saudi-Iranian cooperation is being undercut by psychological, nationalistic and prestige factors, which are likely to persist for a long time.’
- The Nixon and the Carter Doctrines were the logical outcomes to ensure American hegemony.
- An early effort for collective security, attempted in a conference in Muscat in 1975, was thwarted by Baathist Iraq.
- The Iranian Revolution put an end to the Twin Pillar approach and disturbed the strategic balance.
- The Iraq-Iran War enhanced U.S. interests and role.
- Many moons and much bloodshed later, it was left to the Security Council through Resolution 598 (1987) to explore ‘measures to enhance the security and stability in the region’.
Gulf regional security framework
Any framework for stability and security thus needs to answer a set of questions:
Security for whom, by whom, against whom, for what purpose?
Is the requirement in local, regional or global terms?
Does it require an extra-regional agency?
Given the historical context, one recalls a Saudi scholar’s remark in the 1990s that ‘Gulf regional security was an external issue long before it was an issue among the Gulf States themselves.’
What should be the ingredients of a regional security framework?
The essential ingredients of such a framework would thus be to ensure:
1) conditions of peace and stability in individual littoral states;
2) freedom to all states of the gulf littoral to exploit their hydrocarbon and other natural resources and export them;
3) freedom of commercial shipping in international waters of the persian gulf
4)freedom of access to, and outlet from, gulf waters through the strait of hormuz;
5) prevention of conflict that may impinge on the freedom of trade and shipping and 6)prevention of emergence of conditions that may impinge on any of these considerations.
Could such a framework be self-sustaining or require external guarantees for its operational success?
- If the latter, what should its parameters be?
- Misunderstanding the role great powers can play
- Statesmen often confuse great power with total power and great responsibility with total responsibility.
- The war in Iraq and its aftermath testify to it.
- The U.S. effort to ‘contain’ the Iranian revolutionary forces, supplemented by the effort of the Arab states of the littoral (except Iraq) GCC initially met with success in some functional fields and a lack of it in its wider objectives.
The turbulent nature of US-Iran relations
- In the meantime, geopolitical factors and conflicts elsewhere in the West Asian region — Yemen, Syria, Libya — aggravated global and regional relationships.
- And it hampered a modus vivendi in U.S.-Iran relations that was to be premised on the multilateral agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme agreed to by western powers and the Obama Administration.
- But it was disowned by U.S. President Donald Trump whose strident policies have taken the region to the brink of armed conflict.
Perception of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security
- Perceptions of declining U.S. commitment to sub-regional security have been articulated in recent months amid hints of changing priorities.
- This is reported to have caused disquiet in some, perhaps all, members of the GCC, the hub of whose security concern remains pivoted on an Iranian threat (political and ideological rather than territorial).
- And American insurance to deter it based on a convergence of interests in which oil, trade, arms purchases, etc have a role along with wider U.S. regional and global determinants.
- It is evident that a common GCC threat perception has not evolved over time.
- It has been hampered by the emergence of conflicting tactical and strategic interests and subjective considerations.
- The current divisions within the organisation are therefore here to stay.
- These have been aggravated by 1)the global economic crisis, 2) the immediate and longer term impact of COVID-19 on regional economies, 3) the problems in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 4) and the decline in oil prices.
Let’s look at the emerging trends in the region
1) Saudi Arabia is a fading power.
2) UAE, Qatar and Iran are emerging as the new regional leaders.
3) Oman and Iraq will have to struggle to retain their sovereign identities.
4) The GCC is effectively ended, and OPEC is becoming irrelevant as oil policy moves to a tripartite global condominium.
None of this will necessarily happen overnight and external intervention could interfere in unexpected ways.
But it is fair to say that the Persian Gulf as we have known for at least three generations is in the midst of a fundamental transformation.
Improvement in relations between Arab states and Iran
- With the Arab League entombed and the GCC on life-support system, the Arab states of this sub-region are left to individual devices to explore working arrangements with Iraq and Iran.
- The imperatives for these are different but movement on both is discernible.
- With Iran in particular and notwithstanding the animosities of the past, pragmatic approaches of recent months seem to bear fruit.
- Oman has always kept its lines of communication with Iran open.
- Kuwait and Qatar had done likewise but in a quieter vein.
- And now the UAE has initiated pragmatic arrangements.
- These could set the stage for a wider dialogue.
- Both Iran and the GCC states would benefit from a formal commitment to an arrangement incorporating the six points listed above.
- So would every outside nation that has trading and economic interests in the Gulf. This could be sanctified by a global convention.
- Record shows that the alternative of exclusive security arrangements promotes armament drives, enhances insecurity and aggravates regional tensions.
- It unavoidably opens the door for Great Power interference.
- Ties with India and impact on its strategic interests
- Locating the Persian Gulf littoral with reference to India is an exercise in geography and history.
- The distance from Mumbai to Basra is 1,526 nautical miles and Bander Abbas and Dubai are in a radius of 1,000 nautical miles.
- The bilateral relationship, economic and political, with the GCC has blossomed in recent years.
- The governments are India-friendly and Indian-friendly and appreciate the benefits of a wide-ranging relationship.
- This is well reflected in the bilateral trade of around $121 billion and remittances of $49 billion from a workforce of over nine million.
- GCC suppliers account for around 34% of our crude imports and national oil companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are partners in a $44 billion investment in the giant Ratnagiri oil refinery.
- In addition, Saudi Aramco is reported to take a 20% stake in Reliance oil-to-chemicals business.
- The current adverse impact of the pandemic on our economic relations with the GCC countries has now become a matter of concern.
India- Iran relationship
-The relationship with Iran, the complex at all times and more so recently on account of overt American pressure, has economic potential and geopolitical relevance on account of its actual or alleged role in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
-Iran also neighbours Turkey and some countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.
-Its size, politico-technological potential and economic resources, cannot be wished away, regionally and globally, but can be harnessed for wider good.
-Indian interests would be best served if this stability is ensured through cooperative security since the alternative — of competitive security options — cannot ensure durable peace.
ENVIRONMENT
Environmental performance index
Context: 12th edition of the biennial Environment Performance Index (EPI Index 2020) has been released by Yale and Columbia Universities along with the World Economic Forum.
About the index:
-The index ranks 180 countries on 32 performance indicators across 11 categories covering environmental health and ecosystem vitality.
-It is a method of quantifying and numerically marking the environmental performance of a state’s policies.
-It was developed from the Pilot Environmental Performance Index, first published in 2002, and designed to supplement the environmental targets set forth in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.
-The EPI was preceded by the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), published between 1999 and 2005.
Performance of India:
-India secured 168th rank. The country scored 27.6 out of 100 in the 2020 index.
-India’s rank was 177 (with a score of 27.6 out of 100) in 2018.
-India scored below the regional average score on all five key parameters on environmental health, including air quality, sanitation and drinking water, heavy metals and waste management.
-It has also scored below the regional average on parameters related to biodiversity and ecosystem services too.
-Among South Asian countries, India was at second position (rank 106) after Pakistan on ‘climate change’.
-The 11 countries lagging behind India were — Burundi, Haiti, Chad, Soloman Islands, Madagascar, Guinea, Côted’Ivoir, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Myanmar and Liberia.
-All South Asian countries, except Afghanistan, were ahead of India in the ranking.
Some suggestions for India:
- The report indicated that black carbon, carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse emissions per capita increased in 10 years.
- India needs to re-double national sustainability efforts on all fronts, according to the index.
- It needs to focus on a wide spectrum of sustainability issues, with a high-priority to critical issues such as air and water quality, biodiversity and climate change.
Global performance:
-Denmark came in first place, followed by Luxembourg and Switzerland. The United Kingdom ranked fourth.
-The US is far behind other industrialized nations on environmental performance and now ranks 24th in the world.
Disaster management
Assam gas leak
The incident:
-Since the morning of May 27, natural gas has been continuously flowing out of a gas well in Assam following a blowout — or a sudden, uncontrolled release of gas/oil.
-This happened after the blowout at the Oil India Limited’s (OIL) Baghjan gas well in Assam’s Tinsukia district.
-People from surrounding villages have been evacuated, while a variety of fish and an endangered Gangetic dolphin have died.
Leakage:
-The current discharge is at 90,000 SCMD at a pressure of 4,200 PSI, far higher than the normal producing pressure of around 2,700 PSI.
Reason of blowouts
-The pressure balance in a well may be disturbed leading to ‘kicks’ or changes in pressure. If these are not controlled in time, the ‘kicks’ can turn into a sudden blowout.
-There are many possible reasons behind blowouts, “from simple lack of attention, poor workmanship, bad maintenance, old age, sabotage to morpho-tectonic factors”.
Why is it so difficult to control?
-The control of a blowout depends on two things: the size of the reservoir and the pressure at which the gas/oil is flowing out.
-This reservoir was particularly difficult to control since it was a gas well and ran the risk of catching fire at any point.
Steps being taken:
While many blowouts automatically collapse on their own, it can take up to months. To control a blowout, the first step is to pump in water, so that the gas does not catch fire.
Impact to the neighbourhood
As many as 1,610 families with 2,500-3,000 people have been evacuated to relief camps. There are reports of deaths of a river dolphin, and a variety of fish. While the administration has kept an ambulance with paramedical staff on standby, locals have complained of symptoms such as burning of eyes, headache etc.
Also close is the Maguri-Motapung wetland —an Important Bird Area notified by the Bombay Natural History Society.
Impact on the Dibru-Saikhowa National Park:
-It is at an aerial distance of 900 metres from the Dibru-Saikhowa National Park.
-The national park houses some of the rare and endangered species of flora and fauna – around 36 species of mammals and nearly 400 species of birds.
PRELIMS
World Oceans Day
World Oceans Day is an international day that takes place annually on the 8th of June. The concept was originally proposed in 1992 by Canada's International Centre for Ocean Development (ICOD) and the Ocean Institute of Canada (OIC) at the Earth Summit – UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. World Oceans Day was officially recognised by the United Nations in 2008. The International day supports the implementation of worldwide Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and fosters public interest in the management of the ocean and its resources.
Jaya Jaitly task force:
-Constituted by Women and Child Development Ministry.
-To examine issues related to age of motherhood, lowering Maternal Mortality Rate and improvement of nutritional levels.
-Headed by Jaya Jaitly and it will submit its report by 31st July of next month.
-The mandate of the task force involves examining the correlation of age of marriage and motherhood with health, medical well-being and nutritional status of mother and neonate/infant/child, during pregnancy, birth and thereafter.
Magnetocaloric materials:
They are certain materials in which application and removal of a magnetic field causes the materials to become warmer or cooler.
Context: Scientists at the International Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New Materials (ARCI), an autonomous R&D Centre of Department of Science and Technology (DST) has developed a rare-earth-based magnetocaloric material that can be effectively used for cancer treatment.
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