Source: HINDU

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Context

Recent events such as the December 2024 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo which claimed over 400 lives highlight the urgency of addressing the concept of Disease X and preparing for similar threats.

Understanding Disease X

Disease X is not a specific illness but represents an unknown pathogen that could cause a significant health crisis.

COVID-19 is regarded as the first practical example as SARS-CoV-2 emerged as a novel and unpredictable threat.

The term was introduced after the West African Ebola epidemic (2014–2016) which exposed severe shortcomings in epidemic preparedness.

Potential Pathogens

Disease X could be caused by:

Viruses: Novel zoonotic viruses are a primary suspect due to their pandemic history.

Bacteria and Parasites: Resistance to antibiotics adds complexity to bacterial threats.

Prions: Misfolded proteins causing severe neurological diseases.

Lab or Bioterrorism Risks: Deliberate or accidental leaks cannot be ruled out.

Zoonotic Spillover

Approximately 70% of emerging infectious diseases have zoonotic origins driven by human activities like deforestation, wildlife exploitation and agricultural expansion. The intensification of these factors increases the risk of zoonotic transmission.

Patterns in Emerging Diseases

Key Drivers

Ecological Disruptions: Climate change, urbanization and habitat destruction push humans and wildlife into closer contact.

Globalization: Increased international travel and trade accelerate the spread of localized outbreaks.

Antimicrobial Resistance: Escalating resistance to treatments reduces preparedness for bacterial pathogens.

Epidemiological Data

Over 1.7 million undiscovered viruses exist in wildlife with many potentially transmissible to humans.

Recent examples include SARS, MERS and Ebola all tied to ecological or demographic changes.

Challenges in Predicting Disease X

Unpredictable Factors: Disease X could arise from mutation, zoonotic spillover or bioterrorism.

Climate Change: Alters disease transmission patterns enabling pathogens to adapt to new hosts.

Technological Gaps :Despite advancements like genomic sequencing and AI predicting when, where and how Disease X will emerge remains uncertain.

Current estimates suggest only a fraction of human-infecting viruses have been identified.

The WHO’s Priority List of Pathogens

The WHO's 2018 Blueprint for Priority Diseases identifies high-risk pathogens with pandemic potential including:

Viral Diseases: Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, Zika.

Emerging Threats: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Rift Valley fever.

Disease X: Represents unknown threats requiring global focus.

This list guides research and resource allocation to counter high-mortality, rapidly spreading diseases with limited medical countermeasures.

Steps to Prepare for Disease X

Surveillance and Detection

Advanced Genomic Tools enable early detection of novel pathogens.

Artificial Intelligence analyzes patterns to identify emerging threats.

Real-Time Data Sharing promotes global transparency during outbreaks.

Healthcare Infrastructure

Low- and middle-income countries require robust healthcare systems.

Platforms like Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations develop vaccines adaptable to unknown pathogens within 100 days.

Global Collaboration

Frameworks like the proposed Pandemic Treaty aim to coordinate efforts across nations.

Mechanisms like the Nagoya Protocol ensure fair sharing of resources, research and medical countermeasures.

Why the World Must Act Now

The COVID pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in public health systems and international coordination. It emphasized the need for global solidarity and preparedness.

Areas like the Congo Basin with rich biodiversity and limited healthcare are particularly susceptible.

Rapid globalization increases the likelihood of localized outbreaks escalating into global pandemics.

Conclusion

Disease X represents an urgent call for action highlighting the inevitability of future pandemics driven by ecological, demographic and global dynamics. By investing in research, strengthening healthcare systems and fostering international cooperation humanity can mitigate the risks of unknown pathogens.

Sources:

HINDU