Researchers have analysed 70 years of reliable sea surface temperature records in the Pacific Ocean to model changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) under current projections of global heating.
Previous research had suggested that climate change-driven variability of ENSO events would not be detectable until 2070.
New findings: ENSO variations would be detectable about 40 years earlier than suggested by previous modelling.
Implications
We should be more prepared for prolonged droughts and extreme flooding in the future.
Flooding is more destructive than drought in terms of infrastructure, but drought is very impactful in terms of agriculture – both sides of the coin have substantial economic losses.