Exit Polls and Opinion Polls understanding voter behaviour UPSC

Description

EXIT AND OPINION POLLS

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Context: Exit Polls and Opinion Polls are critical parts of understanding voter behaviour and predicting election outcomes.

Details

Exit polls and opinion polls are two types of surveys that are conducted to measure public opinion on various issues, especially during elections.
Exit polls are conducted after the voters have cast their votes, while opinion polls are conducted before the elections.
Both types of polls have their significance and criticism and are subject to certain rules and regulations in India.

What are opinion polls?

Opinion polls are ‘pre-election surveys’ that gather the views of voters or sense the mood before the elections. They ask people about their voting intentions, preferences, opinions and attitudes on various political issues.
Opinion polls can cover a wide range of topics and questions, unlike exit polls which focus only on voting behaviour.
Opinion polls are also conducted by media outlets or polling agencies, but sometimes political parties or candidates may commission them as well.

What is the difference between exit polls and opinion polls?

The main difference between exit polls and opinion polls is that the first is conducted before the voter votes and the second is conducted after the voter has voted. This means that opinion polls measure the plans of the voters, while exit polls measure the actual votes of the voters.
Another difference is that exit polls are considered to be more accurate than opinion polls because they reflect the reality of the voting process, not just the intentions or opinions of the voters.
Exit polls do not suffer from any change in opinion or behaviour that may occur between the time of the survey and the time of voting, as in the case of opinion polls.

What are the rules governing exit polls and opinion polls in India?

In India, results of exit polls for a particular election are not allowed to be published till the last vote has been cast. This is to prevent any undue influence on the voters who may not have voted yet.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has the power to notify the period during which exit polls cannot be published or published under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. Any person who violates this provision can be punished with imprisonment for up to two years or a fine or both.

The ECI has issued guidelines for conducting exit polls, which include:

●The sample size and methodology of the exit poll should be disclosed.

●The margin of error and confidence level of the exit poll should be clearly stated.

●The agency conducting the exit poll should maintain complete neutrality and impartiality.

●The agency conducting the exit poll should not have any political affiliation or interest.

●The agency conducting the exit poll should not accept any funding or sponsorship from any political party or candidate.

What are the limitations of exit polls and opinion polls?

Sampling errors: Both types of surveys rely on a sample of voters that is supposed to represent the whole population of voters. However, if the sample is not large enough, random enough or representative enough, it may introduce errors or biases in the results.
Non-response errors: Both types of surveys depend on the willingness and honesty of the respondents to answer the questions. However, some voters may refuse to participate, lie about their choices or opinions, or give socially desirable answers. This may also distort the results.
Measurement errors: Both types of surveys use questions and scales to measure the variables of interest. However, if the questions are not clear, relevant, unbiased or consistent, they may confuse or mislead the respondents or fail to capture their true preferences or opinions.
Influence on voters: Both types of surveys may have an impact on the voters who are yet to vote, especially if they are widely publicized. Opinion polls may create a bandwagon effect (voters follow the majority) or an underdog effect (voters support the minority), while exit polls may create a demoralization effect (voters lose motivation) or a reinforcement effect (voters gain confidence).

Conclusion

Exit polls and opinion polls are an integral part of elections and democracy in India. They can serve as a valuable tool for measuring public opinion and enhancing public participation. However, they also pose certain challenges and risks for free and fair elections. Therefore, they need to be conducted with utmost care and responsibility by following ethical standards and legal norms.

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Exit Polls And Opinion Polls: https://www.iasgyan.in/daily-current-affairs/exit-polls-and-opinion-polls

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q. In a recently conducted election, a media outlet conducted both an exit poll and an opinion poll. What is the key difference between these two types of polls?

A) Opinion polls rely on data collected after voters have cast their votes, while exit polls gather information before voters enter polling stations.

B) Exit polls are conducted before the election day, while opinion polls are conducted after the election results are announced.

C) Opinion polls are conducted by interviewing voters as they leave polling stations, while exit polls gather data by surveying voters beforehand.

D) Exit polls and opinion polls are terms used interchangeably, referring to the same method of collecting voter opinions.

Answer: A

Explanation:

The correct answer is A) Opinion polls rely on data collected after voters have cast their votes, while exit polls gather information before voters enter polling stations.

Opinion Polls: These polls gather insights and opinions of the electorate on various issues or candidate preferences before the election day. They are conducted through surveys or interviews weeks or even months before the election. The aim is to gauge public sentiment, party support, or candidate popularity leading up to the election.

Exit Polls: Conducted on election day, exit polls involve interviewing voters as they leave the polling stations. The goal is to capture the voting patterns, choices, and demographics of voters right after they have cast their votes. Exit polls aim to predict the likely outcome of the election based on the immediate preferences of the voters.