Finlandization
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Context: President Emmanuel Macron of France invoked a “Finlandization” of Ukraine as one of the models on the table for defusing tensions with Russia.
- Later he denied making the remark, which appeared to put him at odds with not only the Ukrainians but also the United States.
What is ‘Finlandization’?
- The term refers to Finland’s strict neutrality during the Cold War, enshrined in a 1948 treaty with Moscow when tensions between the Soviet Union and the West were at a high.
- The treaty ensured Finland that unlike other countries in Eastern Europe, it would not face a Soviet invasion, but in return, it agreed to stay out of NATO and allowed the giant next door to exercise significant influence over its domestic and foreign policy.
- The principle of neutrality was rooted in the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance that Finland signed with the USSR in April 1948.
Ukraine and Finlandization
- Ukraine, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, has increasingly tilted toward the West, economically and politically, while resisting Russian influence.
- In 2008, NATO said it planned eventually for Ukraine to join the alliance, a popular idea within the country, though it has never actually applied for membership and NATO officials say it would not happen any time soon.
- “Finlandization” would allow Moscow a heavy hand in Ukrainian affairs. It goes against what Ukraine has been striving for, that is joining NATO and the E.U.
How “Finlandization” is the best course Ukraine can take?
- This model had been floated earlier in 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea and fighting broke out in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
- Russia is determined to expand his sphere of influence and undermine an independent Ukrainian government, and the West making it clear it would not go to war against Russia to defend Ukraine.
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