GREAT HORN OF AFRICA

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Context

Climate forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa region, focusing on the period from October to December 2023.

Details

• The Greater Horn of Africa region is predicted to experience heavy rains from October to December 2023.
• The forecast was released by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during the 65th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF65).
• The forecast attributes the wet conditions to El Niño and the developing Indian Ocean Dipole.
• ICPAC provides climate services to 11 East African countries and is accredited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Forecast Details

• Wetter-than-usual conditions due to El Niño are expected across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
• Southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia are likely to experience heavy rainfall.
• Drier conditions are forecasted for isolated areas of southwestern Uganda and southwestern South Sudan.
• Below-average rainfall is expected for various areas, including Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Western Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Northern Uganda.
• The vital rainfall season occurs from October to December and contributes significantly to the annual total rainfall.

Regional Variations

• Early rainfall is anticipated for eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania.
• Rainfall may be average or delayed in northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.

Temperature Impact

• El Niño is predicted to increase temperatures in many parts of the world, including Africa.

Potential Blessings and Curses

• Increased precipitation may contribute to flooding after experiencing heavy rainfall from March to May 2023.
• While heavy rains can benefit farmers and the agriculture sector, they can also lead to challenges.
• Desert locusts are proliferating in parts of the region, posing a threat.
• Extreme weather-led devastation is a possibility, as seen during the 2015-16 El Niño event.
• Governments and disaster management agencies are advised to prepare for torrential rains-led landslides, flash floods, and other challenges to save lives and livelihoods.

About Greater Horn of Africa

• The Greater Horn of Africa is a geographic region located in the eastern part of the African continent.
• It encompasses several countries and is characterized by diverse topography, cultures, and climates. This region holds significant geopolitical and environmental importance.

Geographical Scope

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• The Greater Horn of Africa region includes countries situated in the northeastern part of Africa.
• It spans across a vast area, extending from the Red Sea coastline to the Great Lakes region.

Countries in the Region

• The Greater Horn of Africa includes the following countries:

1. Burundi
2. Djibouti
3. Eritrea
4. Ethiopia
5. Kenya
6. Rwanda
7. Somalia
8. South Sudan
9. Sudan
10. Tanzania
11. Uganda

Topographical Diversity

• The region exhibits diverse topography, including highlands, lowlands, plateaus, and rift valleys.
• It is home to various prominent geographical features such as the Ethiopian Highlands and the East African Rift System.

Cultural and Ethnic Diversity

• The Greater Horn of Africa boasts a rich tapestry of cultures, languages, and ethnic groups.
• Each country within the region has its own unique cultural heritage and traditions.

Climate Variability

• The region experiences a wide range of climatic conditions due to its diverse geography.
• Climates range from arid and semi-arid in the lowland areas to temperate and tropical in the highlands and equatorial regions.

Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

• Poverty: Many countries in the region face high levels of poverty, with limited access to basic services and resources.
• Political Instability: Some countries have experienced political conflicts and instability, affecting regional peace and development.
• Food Insecurity: The region's agricultural sector is vulnerable to climate fluctuations, contributing to food insecurity.
• Health Challenges: Health issues such as disease outbreaks and limited healthcare infrastructure pose challenges to public well-being.

Opportunities

• Natural Resources: The region is rich in natural resources, including minerals, agriculture, and renewable energy potential.
• Economic Growth: With proper management, these resources can contribute to economic growth and development.
• Tourism: The diverse landscapes and cultural heritage offer potential for tourism growth.

Environmental Considerations

Climate Patterns and Variability

• The region is impacted by various climate phenomena, such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, leading to variable rainfall patterns.
• These patterns influence agriculture, water availability, and livelihoods.

Conservation Efforts

• The Greater Horn of Africa region includes important biodiversity hotspots, prompting conservation efforts to protect unique ecosystems and species.
• Conservation initiatives address challenges such as habitat loss, poaching, and deforestation.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/after-3-years-of-drought-greater-horn-of-africa-to-get-early-heavy-rains-courtesy-el-nino-91403