Description

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Context

A study by researchers from ETH Zurich and University of Colorado Boulder developed a global risk index for mangroves based on climate hazards specifically Sea level rise and Tropical cyclones.

Findings

By 2100 under the worst case emissions scenario 56% of global mangroves may be at high to severe risk.

34% of high value mangroves providing coastal protection, carbon storage, and fisheries support may face irreversible regime shifts.

What is a Regime Shift?

A permanent change in ecosystem structure and function. Mangrove forests may not recover even with restoration.

Why Mangroves Are at Risk

Sea Level Rise

Submerges mangrove roots, reducing oxygen and altering salinity.

Can lead to peat collapse that is land subsidence making it harder for mangroves to survive.

Stronger Storms

Destroy mangrove trees and root systems.

Replanted mangroves take over 55 years to regain full ecological functions.

Feedback Loop

Storms and sea level rise can occur together.

Each hazard worsens the impact of the other creating a dangerous loop of collapse.

Geographical Hotspots of Risk

Caribbean & Central America

High exposure to storms.

Infrastructure and fisheries at risk.

South & Southeast Asia

Dense mangrove forests e.g., Sundarbans, Mekong Delta.

Supports large coastal populations and biodiversity.

Eastern Africa

Low lying coasts highly vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Philippines

Over 260000 hectares of mangroves.

Frequent tropical cyclones make it one of the most at-risk nations.

Ecosystem Services at Stake

Ecosystem Service	Description	Risk from Climate Hazards
Coastal Protection	Mangroves buffer storm surges and waves.	Damaged by storms, reducing natural coastal defenses.
Carbon Storage	Store carbon in trees and soil that is blue carbon.	Destruction releases CO₂ → worsens climate change.
Fisheries Support	Nursery habitats for fish and shellfish.	Collapse harms food security and local livelihoods.

Human Impact

Around 775 million people depend on coastal ecosystems.

Mangroves contribute about $65 billion annually in flood protection.

Yet mangrove losses aren’t accounted for in climate damage assessments.

Recommendations

Include climate risk in conservation planning.

Avoid restoring mangroves in high risk zones and shift to safer areas.

Use eco-engineering to elevate mangrove root zones.

Promote species mixing for better adaptability.

Design climate resilient blue carbon projects.

Sources:

DOWNTOEARTH

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q. Mangrove ecosystems provide critical ecological services, yet they are increasingly threatened by the twin impacts of rising sea levels and intensifying tropical storms. In this context, discuss the importance of incorporating climate risk assessment into mangrove conservation strategies. (250 words)