La Niña is a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, influencing global weather patterns. In 2024, its delayed onset may result in milder winter temperatures in northern India and a stronger monsoon in 2025, benefiting agriculture and water resources. Monitoring ENSO patterns is essential for anticipating climate impacts.
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The India Meteorological Department now expects a La Niña to set in by late 2024 or early 2025, plus a milder winter due to this delay.
La Niña means little girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, the anti-El Niño, or simply the "cold event." La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, the trade winds are even stronger than usual and push more warm water towards Asia. Upwelling increases off the west coast of America, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
La Niña, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, occurs when the region of the Pacific Ocean between Indonesia and South America is cooler than usual.
Its counterpart, El Niño, represents the warming of the same region. These two phases significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.
During La Niña years, India receives normal or above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
Yet the same phenomenon causes drought in Africa and strengthens hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, El Niño brings extreme summers and droughts in India while increasing rainfall in the southern United States.
Triple Dip La Niña is a rarely observed phenomenon where La Niña conditions persist for three consecutive winters, affecting global weather patterns due to a cooling effect from the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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El Niño Impact |
Brings intense heat waves and disrupts the monsoon. India has historically experienced below average rainfall during at least half of the El Niño years since 1871. |
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Rainfall Trends During El Niño |
After 1980, northern and southern India received less rainfall during intense El Niño events, while central India was less affected. |
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La Niña Impact |
Promotes stronger monsoons, leading to "normal" or "above normal" rainfall, as seen in the 2020, 2021, and 2022 La Niña years. |
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El Niño 2023 Rainfall |
Below normal rainfall was recorded. |
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Predicted Impact of La Niña (2024-2025) |
May result in less intense heat and more rain for India if it develops and continues into the monsoon season. |
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Current Weather Trends (2023-2024) |
Southern India (e.g., Bengaluru, Hyderabad) is experiencing colder than normal winters. Northern India has delayed winter with above normal temperatures. |
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Weather Patterns Linked to La Niña |
Colder than normal winters in northern India. La Niña winters have cooler nights but warmer daytime temperatures compared to El Niño winters. |
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Daytime Conditions During La Niña Winters |
Average wind speed is higher during the day. |
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Research Findings |
Analysis of 35 years of data by the Energy Environment and Water Council showed La Niña winters exhibit distinct temperature and wind speed patterns. |
La Niña usually forms during the pre-monsoon or monsoon season. However, there is an unusual delay in 2024, with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) hovering at -0.3°C (the threshold for La Niña is -0.5°C or lower). If La Niña forms, it will bring the following:
The delayed occurrence of La Niña in 2024 brought uncertainty about its impact on winter and monsoons. If La Niña sets in early 2025, it could ensure a strong monsoon season, which is crucial for India's agriculture and water resources. Monitoring ENSO patterns is critical to understanding and preparing for its climate effects.
READ ABOUT
Impact of ENSO and Global Warming on Monsoon Rainfall
La Nina Impact on India's Winter Air Quality
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q.Discuss the impact of La Niña on India's climate, highlighting its effects on monsoon patterns, agricultural productivity, and extreme weather events. What mitigation strategies can be adopted to manage its adverse impacts? (250 WORDS) |
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