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Context

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology along with the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), is developing this first-for-India Earth System Model.

Details

Earth System Model

• Earth system model (ESM) is open-source software that is designed to integrate the interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere to estimate the state of regional and global climate under a wide variety of conditions.
• Since it is based on numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, it can be used for accurate climate change predictions.
• The work on the model is currently underway and is expected to be completed by 2025.

State-of-the-art climate model

• It will not only facilitate long-term climate studies but will also generate reliable future projections of the global and regional climate, and particularly the Indian monsoon rainfall.
• IITM-ESM incorporates earth system components in the Climate Forecast System (CFS) from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA), and transforms the CFS seasonal prediction model to a long-term climate mode.
• Also generated an ensemble of high resolution dynamically downscaled future projections of regional climate over South Asia and Indian monsoon, which will be useful for impact assessment studies and for quantifying uncertainties in the regional projections.

Indian Context

• The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal.

Government’s Efforts

• Over the last few years the government has been focusing on the development of new climate modelling capabilities in the country to address issues concerning the science of climate change.
• Also aim to present policy-relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.

Monsoon Convection, Clouds and Climate Change (MC4) sub scheme

• It was envisioned to improve the observational database and climate models for enhanced predictive understanding of monsoonal precipitation changes and their impacts in a warming environment.
• The overarching goal of MC4 is to describe better and quantify interactions among monsoon dynamics, clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and the water cycle in a changing climate.

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