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Context:

• It is two years since the Myanmar army seized power in the pre-dawn hours of February 1, 2021, the day new Members of Parliament were scheduled to meet in an inaugural session.
• The National League for Democracy (NLD) had won a landslide victory, and to justify the coup, the generals alleged rigging by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party.
• In fact, the coup appears to have been driven by the generals’ fear that Suu Kyi, backed by democratic parties in Parliament, would rewrite the 2008 Constitution, and write the military out of it.

Details:

PRESENT STATUS:

• The present leadership of the army led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who heads the junta regime named the State Administration Council, failed to bring the country under control.
• Hundreds of armed pro-democracy civilian resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces) are fighting the junta and turning swathes of the country into no-go areas for the army.
• At the political level, a National Unity Government comprising many of the elected parliamentarians has fashioned itself as a government in exile, and has been lobbying foreign governments for diplomatic recognition.
• The junta has given a tough military response, using land forces and air power against the pro-democracy fighters and the EAOs, but has failed to force them into submission.
• The situation is a violent impasse, in which neither side can claim an upper hand.

GEOGRAPHY OF MYANMAR:

• Myanmar (also known as Burma) is the northwesternmost country of mainland Southeast Asia located on the Indochinese peninsula.
• With an area of 261,228 sq mi (676,578 sq km), it is the second largest country in Southeast Asia and the largest on mainland Southeast Asia.
• Myanmar lies along the Indian and Eurasian Plates, to the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau.
• The country is nestled between several mountain ranges with the Arakan Mountains on the west and the Shan Plateau dominating the east. It includes more than 16 islands and the Mergui Archipelago.

Border Countries: Bangladesh: 271 kilometres (168 mi), India:1,468 kilometres (912 mi), China: 2,129 kilometres (1,323 mi), Laos: 238 kilometres (148 mi), Thailand: 2,416 kilometres (1,501 mi).

Climate: Tropical monsoon in the lowlands below 1,000 m (3,281 ft); cloudy, rainy, hot, humid summers (southwest monsoon, June to September); less cloudy, scant rainfall, mild temperatures, lower humidity during winter (northeast monsoon, December to April).

Rivers:

• The Irrawaddy, the main river of Burma, flows from north to south through the Central Burma Basin and ends in a wide delta. The Mekong river runs from the Tibetan Plateau through China's Yunnan and northeastern Burma into Laos.
• In the east the Salween and the Sittaung River run along the western side of the Shan Hills and the northern end of the Dawna Range. The Salween begins in China, where it is called the Nu River.
• In the narrow southeastern part of Burma, the Ye, Heinze, Dawei (Tavoy), Great Tenasserim (Tanintharyi) and the Lenya rivers are relatively short and flow into the Andaman Sea. Further south the Kraburi River forms the southern border between Thailand and Burma

BRIEF ON INDIA-MYANMAR RELATIONS:

Building on civilizational relationship, since the 1990s India adopted a policy of working on improved Government-to-Government relations. Various institutional mechanisms have infused dynamism to the bilateral ties.

High-level Visits: The State Visit to Myanmar of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2017, when he visited Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon and Bagan, further led to strengthening of political relationship as well as enhancing people to people ties.

Defence & Security Cooperation: Exchange of high-level visits, signing of MoU on Border Cooperation, training, Army, Air Force and Naval Staff Talks are important indicators in this direction.

Commercial Cooperation:

• A bilateral Trade Agreement was signed in 1970.
• Bilateral trade has been growing steadily to reach US$ 2178.44 million (2016-17), of which Indian exports amounted to US$ 1111.19 million and Indian's imports to US$ 1067.25 million. 
• India is the fifth largest trading partner of Myanmar but trade remains below potential.
• Agriculture sector dominates trade, particularly supply of beans & pulses to India ($ 809 million, 2016-17) and timber ($ 156 million).
• India is presently the tenth largest investor
• Myanmar is an important partner in our energy relations with other countries.

Development Cooperation:

• Delhi is committed to provide grant-in-aid assistance amounting to almost Rs 4000 crore (of total commitment of approx. US$ 1726 million). 
• These include support for the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project; the Trilateral Highway Project etc. 

Disaster Relief: India has responded promptly and effectively to assist Myanmar in humanitarian relief operations following natural calamities.

Culture:

• India and Myanmar share close cultural ties and a sense of deep kinship given India's Buddhist heritage.
• Building on this shared heritage India is undertaking some key initiatives: Restoration of the Ananda Temple in Bagan etc

Indian Diaspora: The origin of the Indian community in Myanmar is traced to the mid-19th century with the advent of the British rule in Lower Burma in 1852. The two cities Yangon and Mandalay had a dominating presence of Indians in civil services, education, trade and commerce during the British rule. There are varying estt. of 1.5-2.5 million people of Indian origin living and working in various parts of Myanmar.

Bilateral Cooperation in Regional/ Sub-regional context: Myanmar's membership of ASEAN, BIMSTEC and Mekong Ganga Cooperation has introduced a regional/sub-regional dimension to bilateral relations and imparted added significance in the context of our "Act East" policy. Myanmar has generally been supportive of India's stand to various international organisations. For our part, we have supported Myanmar's association with SAARC as an observer; Myanmar formally acquired such status in 2008.

INDIA’S POLICY:

• In India, which shares a 1,600-km border with Myanmar along four Northeastern states, as well as a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal, the failure of the Myanmar state presents a foreign policy dilemma.
• For some three decades, India has pursued a “dual-track policy”, which essentially means doing business with the junta, which has ruled over Myanmar for all but five years since 1990, with tea and sympathy for the pro-democracy forces.
• The decision to engage with the military rulers was taken in the mid-1990s primarily as a quid pro quo for its help in securing India’s Northeastern borders by denying safe haven to Northeastern insurgents. This worked to India’s advantage, and became the touchstone by which the relationship with military-ruled Myanmar was built for several years.
• Over the last two decades, as China with its deep pockets emerged as a rival in the region, engaging with the junta was also seen as a way to retain Indian influence in Myanmar.
• Delhi had to calibrate this engagement during the “democratic transition” of the last decade and rebalance the dual track.
• Now it is back to square 1 — and as the coup enters its third year, the limits of the old template are becoming apparent, even going by India’s narrowly defined national interests: border security management, and restricting China in Myanmar.

WHY MYANMAR SHOULD MATTER TO INDIA?

• Myanmar is only country that sits at the intersection of India’s “Neighborhood First” policy and “Act East” policy.
• Myanmar is an essential element in India’s practice of regional diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, and serves as a land bridge to connect South Asia and Southeast Asia.
• Myanmar is an important member of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), a multilateral subregional organization that is committed to fostering bilateral or regional cooperation among Bay of Bengal countries.
• To elevate its “Made in India” arms industry, India has identified Myanmar as key to increasing its military exports.
• Myanmar is geopolitically significant to India as it stands at the center of the India-Southeast Asia geography.
• Myanmar is the only Southeast Asian country that shares a land border with northeastern India, stretching some 1,624 kilometers. The neighbors also share a 725-km maritime boundaryin the Bay of Bengal.

MEASURES TAKEN TO IMPROVE TIES:

• It was one of only two Southeast Asian countries invited to attend the swearing-in of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after he won re-election in May 2019.
• Facilitating connectivity is central to improving India-Myanmar economic relations. India regards Myanmar as a gateway to link up to the rest of Southeast Asia, and invested in ASEAN-wide infrastructural projects that are able to boost trade in the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area.
• Infrastructure projects:
• The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMMTT), to connect the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with the Sittwe deep-water port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state by sea.
• As part of its policy for the Indian Ocean called Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), central to which is “port-led development,” India developed the Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state.
• This port, which sits on the Bay of Bengal, serves as a critical node of the KMMTT initiative to connect southwestern Myanmar to northeastern India by creating a multi-modal trinary of sea, river and road transport corridor to boost interconnectivity.
• India’s long-term strategic goal is to create a Special Economic Zone surrounding the Sittwe port.
• The Sittwe port is meant to be India’s answer to the Chinese-fronted Kyaukpyu port, which is intended to cement China’s geostrategic footprint in Rakhine.
• India has been providing humanitarian relief even while deporting Rohingya refugees from India for security reasons, provoking the UN’s ire.

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CHALLENGES:

• The present military leadership of Myanmar has proved incompetent.
• The last three years have upended India’s “Act East” policy, and set back India’s goals in the region.

Gateway to SE Asia-jeopardised:

• As the only ASEAN country bordering India, Myanmar was supposed to be the gateway to Southeast Asia and the potential of this for economic and “new vistas of co-operation”.
• Now it is a conflict zone, and India’s two flagship projects in Myanmar have been jeopardised — the Trilateral Highway, to connect India, Myanmar and Thailand, and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport project.

Conflict spillover to India:

• The conflict following the coup has spilled over into India.
• Mizoram is hosting tens of thousands of refugees from the adjoining Chin state in Myanmar.
• Refugees have come into other Northeastern states, though in fewer numbers.

Security concerns:

• Indian security establishment is aware that the Myanmar junta has recruited Indian insurgent group (IIGs) in regions adjoining Manipur and Nagaland to fight against the local PDFs and other groups, and that rearmed by the junta for this purpose, these groups are now strengthening themselves.

Rohingya concerns:

• The military cannot resolve the Rohingya crisis, another regional destabiliser.

China Factor: 

• Beijing’s bidding into Myanmar regional affairs. Myanmar is inevitability a “kingmaker” in Sino-Indian relations.

Trade deficit:

With a total bilateral trade of $2 billion, India’s economic engagement with Myanmar lags behind China. Myanmar is vital to fulfilling India’s ambition to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024. India’s withdrawal from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can further increase this trade gap.

WAY FORWARD:

• Delhi can open channels to the democratic forces and to some ethnic groups
• It can work more actively with ASEAN
• It could open an army to army channel with the junta
• It can increase people to people channels
• It can offer scholarships to Myanmar students like it did for Afghan students in a different era.
• Security Cooperation: For economic relations to improve, India and Myanmar must boost their security cooperation at the border. The more secure the border is, the greater the economic activity will be.
• For example: Part of the reason why the KMMTT has faced delays is that the route of the project traverses a warzone in Rakhine state, where a battle rages on between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army rebels on the one hand, and on the other, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. Insurgents from India’s Nagaland have also disrupted the completion of the KMMTT project.
• Handling Rohingya issue with care: Myanmar’s geostrategic importance to India has meant that Delhi did not take a hardline approach on Naypyidaw vis-à-vis the Rohingya issue, even keeping its distance when Myanmar was hauled into the International Court of Justice over accusations of Rohingya genocide. India, which has a Hindu majority, will need to perform a balancing act between Muslim-majority Bangladesh and Buddhist-majority Myanmar as far as the Rohingya issue is concerned. The quicker the Rohingya issue is resolved, the easier it will be for India to manage its relations with Myanmar and Bangladesh, focusing instead more on bilateral and subregional economic cooperation.
• India’s Buddhist diplomacy would bolster its tourist industry and could build up India’s diplomatic reservoir of goodwill and trust with Buddhist-majority countries such as Myanmar.

 

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/2-years-after-coup-myanmars-mess-and-indias-headache-8422945/