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Context: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Delhi to focus on strategic issues resulting from the war, as well as specific discussions on purchasing Russian oil, payment mechanisms, given sanctions against Russian banks and exclusion from the SWIFT, and possible disruptions in the supply of military hardware.

India-Russia relations

Historical background:                                    

• India and Russia have enjoyed good relations since 1947.
• It started with a visit by the then Indian PM Nehru to the Soviet Union in 1955 and the First Secretary of the Communist Party Khrushchev’s return trip during the same year.
• India and the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendshipin August 1971
• After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India and Russia entered into a new Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993 and a bilateral Military-Technical Cooperation agreement in 1994.
• In 2000 both countries established a Strategic Partnership.
• In 2010, it was elevated to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.”
• PM Modi is the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the Russian Far East and this visit is intended to give “a new direction, new energy, and new speed” to the bilateral relations.

Political Relations

• Annual Summit: The Annual Summit meeting between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation is the highest institutionalized dialogue mechanism in the strategic partnership between India and Russia.
• PM Modi was awarded with Russia’s highest state decoration - Order of St Andrew the Apostle.
• Indian Defence Minister undertook a trip to Russia for its ‘Victory Day’ parade, the first high-level visit from India to any country during the pandemic.
• Intergovernmental Commissions: Two Inter- Governmental Commissions - one on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC),  and another on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC- MTC) meet annually.
• International/Multilateral Organizations and Connectivity Projects: BRICS, SCO, Russia has been a long standing supporter of India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Permanent Membership in an expanded UNSC.

Defence and Security Cooperation

• Russia-Traditional military supplier: Russia has been a traditional military supplier, over 60% of Indian military inventoryis of Russian origin, including fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and submarines.
• In 2021, India and Russia signed a ₹5000 crore deal for 6.1 lakh AK-203 assault riflesto be manufactured jointly in Uttar Pradesh.
• Russia is manufacturing two stealth frigates for the Navy. While another two are being manufactured by the Goa Shipyard Limited under technology transfer.
• India is also looking to receive the third Akula class nuclear attack submarine (SSN) sometime in 2025.
• India-Russia military technical cooperation has evolved from a buyer - seller framework to one involving joint research, development and production of advanced defence technologies and systems.
• BrahMos Missile Systemas well as the licensed production in India of SU-30 aircraft and T-90 tanks, are examples of such flagship cooperation.
• Furthering this cooperation, an agreement on the cooperation in the production of spare parts for Russian/Soviet military equipment was signed.
• Agreements on supply of S-400 air defence systems, construction of frigates and shareholders agreement on the formation of joint venture to manufacture Ka-226T helicopters in India.
• Production of AK Series Assault Rifles at Ordnance Factory Korwa under the ‘Make-in-India’ program.
• The two countries also hold exchanges and training exercises between their armed forces annually.
• The first-ever Tri-Services exercise –‘INDRA 2017’ took place in 2017.

Trade and Economic Relations

• Enhancing trade and economic cooperation between India and Russia is a key priority for the political leadership of both the countries.
• It is clear by the revised targets of increasing bilateral investment to US $ 50 billion and bilateral trade to US $ 30 billion by 2025.
• India-Russia trade and connectivity lag behindthose between China and Russia.
• Bilateral trade during April 2020-March 2021 amounted USD 8.1 billion. Indian exports amounted USD 2.6 billion while imports from Russia amounted USD 5.48 billion.
• A number of institutionalized mechanismshave been set up for the development of economic cooperation between the two countries.
• India Russia Intergovernmental Commission for Trade, Economic, Scientific & Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).
• India-Russia Strategic Economic Dialogue (IRSED)has been established for cooperation in the field of development of economic policy and to encourage regular interactions and cooperation between the two countries.
• India is contemplating an FTA/ CECA with the Eurasian Economic Union. India is keen to engage more closely with Russia and the CIS countries to further intensify our trade and economic cooperation with this region.
• Bilateral trade in services: Bilateral trade in services has remained stable during the last 5 years with trade balance in Russia’s favor. While in 2017, trade in services was USD 1095.4 million, it reduced slightly in 2018 to USD 999 million. The figure stands at USD 973.645 million for the year 2020.
• Investment: Russian investment in India in 2017 has reached 18bn USD and India’s total investment in Russia so far is 13 bn USD. The overall investment target of 30 bn USD that was set for 2025 has been already crossed. Investment cooperation has been envisaged in some priority sectors such as hydrocarbons, power, coal, nuclear power, fertilizers, IT, mineral and metallurgy, steel, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure projects amongst others.

Energy Security

• In Energy sector Russia has built nuclear reactors in India (kudankulam reactors), adopted strategic vision in nuclear energy, offered oil, gas and investment opportunities in the fuel sector of Russia e.g. Sakhalin I etc.
• Both are extending civil nuclear cooperation to 3rd countries, e.g. Bangladesh.

Space technology

• The former Soviet Union launched India’s first two satellites, Aryabhata and Bhaskar.
• It has provided India Cryogenic technology to build heavy rockets.

Science & Technology

• The Working Group on Science and Technology, the Integrated Long Term Programme (ILTP) and the Basic Science Cooperation Programme are the three main institutional mechanisms for bilateral Science and Technology cooperation.
• Science Academies of the two countries promote inter-academy exchanges.

Cultural Cooperation

• There is a strong tradition of Indian studies in Russia.
• As per the reciprocal agreement, regular cultural exchange between India and Russia has been taking place since 2015.

Reasons for Recent Downturn in Relations

• India Going West:China’s expansionist foreign policy forced India to shed past hesitations and actively pursue closer ties with the West, particularly the US.
• Russia Going East:Russia revved up its own “Pivot to the East”. The most distinct results of which are markedly improved relations with China, and better ties with Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan.
• Defence:India has been recently diversifying its defence relations with US, Israel etc. Russia’s share of Indian defense imports fell from 79 percent between 2008-2012 to 62 percent between 2013-2017.
• Trade has been one-dimensional i.e. defence based. The trade in 2017-18 was $10.7 billion, which is far below potential in comparison to India’s trade with China ($89.7 billion), the United States ($74.5 billion).
• Towards Taliban:Russia is showing inclination towards Taliban in Afghanistan while India continues to have concerns about the group.

What are the recent positive developments in India-Russia ties?

• Agreements on the construction of 12 nuclear power plants in India
• The ‘localized manufacturing’ in India of Russian-designed nuclear power plants
• The finalisation in 2014 and 2015 of the supply of crude oil by Rosneft to Essar.
• Supply of S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System, 4 frigates and also the manufacturing of Ka-226T.
• In terms of investments, both the countries had set the target of $30 billion by 2025.
• Gaganyaan Project: Russia would help train the Indian astronauts for the manned space mission.
• Russia supports India’s bid for permanent membership in UNSC and NSG.

Importance of Russia for India

Balancing China:

• Russia organised a trilateral meeting among the foreign ministers of Russia, India and China following deadly clashes in Galwan valley.
• This shows that Russia can contribute in defusing tensions with China whose relations with India have come to an inflection point.

Emerging New Sectors of Economic Engagement:

• mining, agro-industrial, and high technology, including robotics, nanotech, and biotech.
• India’s footprint in the Russian Far East and in the Arctic is set to expand.
• Connectivity projects may get a boost too.

Combating Terrorism:

• India and Russia are working on Afghanistan.
• Similarly, both are calling for early formalisation of Comprehensive Convention on International terrorism.

Support At Multilateral Forums:

• Russia has been a long standing supporter of India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Permanent Membership in an expanded UNSC.
• Important supplier of defence materials and equipment of all kinds.

 Way Forward

• It is in the vital interest of both countries to ensure that the area which relates to the security and defence, civil nuclear energy and spaceamong, is insulated from mutual differences in outlook on some geo-political issues and the pressures of other powers.
• It would also be mutually beneficial for both countries to explore other areas of cooperation such as connectivity through both land and sea as well as trade.
• There is a need of a free trade agreementto augment trade.
• India should pursue and facilitate Russia’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
• India must promote a mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation between Russia, China, and India.
• Cooperation At Multilateral Forums: India and Russia continue to share a common strategic rationale for their relationship.
• There are areas of convergence that can be used to improve the relationship between the two countries. For example, both are involved in the Rooppur nuclear plant project in Bangladesh on a trilateral basis.
• There is a need for a more “extensive Eurasian partnership involving the EAEU and China, India, Pakistan, and Iran”.
• India can help Russia by providing the much-needed workforce in sectors like agriculture and construction without engaging in permanent settlement.
• Both countries must take advantage of policies like ‘Make in India’.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/amid-ukraine-war-lavrov-to-visit-delhi-this-week/article65265271.ece