INDIA’S FERTILITY RATE

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Context

• India has experienced a significant decline in fertility rates over the past few decades. The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021.

Details

• Projected Decline: Policymakers anticipate further declines in fertility rates to 1.29 by 2050 and a worrying level of 1.04 by 2100.
• Global Context: Falling fertility rates are not unique to India but are part of a global trend. The global fertility rate has decreased steadily, dropping nearly 50% in the past 70 years.
• UN Projections: The United Nations predicts global population growth to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, with TFR converging to near replacement level (2.1).
• Impact of Aging Population: Declining fertility rates coupled with longer life expectancies pose challenges, including provisions for social security, healthcare for the elderly, and generating employment opportunities for this demographic.

Economic Implications

• Aging Population: The aging population resulting from lower fertility rates and higher life expectancies poses economic risks, such as escalating healthcare expenses and a shrinking global workforce.
• Economic Slowdown: Factors such as wealth disparities, gender biases, and social imbalances can contribute to economic slowdowns.

Policy Response

• Demographic Dividend: India's youthful demographic, known as the demographic dividend, presents economic advantages. However, policymakers need to capitalize on this advantage to prevent India from getting stuck in the middle-income trap.
• Challenges: Policymakers face challenges in managing social security programs and healthcare infrastructure to address the needs of the growing senior citizen population.

Contributing Factors

• Health and Lifestyle: Factors like obesity, stress, smoking, and environmental pollution contribute to declining fertility rates.
• Infertility Cases: Urban areas with high-stress lifestyles and dietary patterns are witnessing a significant proportion of infertility cases, with sedentary employment increasing the risk.
• Rising Demand for IVF: The rising demand for In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) treatments underscores the growing prevalence of infertility issues, with the IVF market projected to grow substantially.

TFR as per NFHS-5

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) decline in India, as highlighted by the recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), indicates significant demographic shifts with various implications and future considerations.

Current TFR and Sex Ratio:

• TFR Decline: India's TFR has decreased from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 at the national level, with variations observed between urban (1.6) and rural areas (2.1).
• Sex Ratio: NFHS-5 reports a sex ratio of 1,020 women per 1,000 men, a notable deviation from previous surveys.
• TFR Target: Replacement level fertility, set at 2.1, ensures each generation replaces itself. An additional 0.1 child per woman accounts for infant mortality.

Implications of TFR in India:

• Population Stability: A TFR of 2.0 indicates stable long-term population trends, with two parents replaced by two children.
• Future Growth: India may not experience population decline for 30-40 years due to a substantial youth population.

Reasons for Fertility Decline:

• Education: Higher female education levels contribute to fertility decline.
• Economic Factors: Increased mobility, late marriages, and financial independence influence family planning decisions.
• Family Planning Programs: Enhanced access to family planning methods and higher contraceptive prevalence rates play a role.

Future Considerations:

• Population Decline: Lower fertility rates may lead to population decline akin to developed countries.
• Policy Focus: Attention should shift towards improving employment opportunities, healthcare infrastructure, and social security systems to address the aging population.
• State-Level Strategies: States with higher fertility rates should prioritize improving education, income levels, and reducing infant mortality.