INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH, PAST AND PRESENT

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Context:

From Bangladesh to Myanmar, the Indian subcontinent is facing challenges from developing political crises and geopolitical developments.

Details

India's involvement in its neighbourhood has always been a delegated balancing act. As its action frequently influences the region's stability or instability.

The Promise of Democracy (2008–2010)

• Between 2008 and 2010, India witnessed an increase in democratic movements in its neighbouring countries.
• During this time, India was influential in supporting and encouraging democratic processes in various neighbouring countries, expressing optimism for the region's development.

Bangladesh

• In 2008, Bangladesh moved from military rule to a democratic government.
• This peaceful transfer of power In Bangladesh was largely due to the effort of India.
• Pranab Mukherjee, then External Affairs Minister of India played an important role in ensuring free elections in Bangladesh.
• The effort of India resulted in a mutually beneficial partnership between the two nations.

Sri Lanka

• The defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 marked the end of a 33-year-long civil conflict in Sri Lanka.
• In 1987, the Indian peacekeeping force was sent to Sri Lanka to end the civil war.
• India's support to the Sri Lankan government during the years of conflict helped India strengthen stronger ties with Sri Lanka.

Maldives

• The first multiparty election in 2008 ended the 30 years of autocratic rule.
• In 1988, India's intervention in the Maldives coup attempt, under the code name Operation Cactus is remembered with gratitude by Maldives.
• India played an important role in stabilising and promoting democracy in Maldives.

Myanmar

• The 2010 election marked the end of two decades of military rule and established a democracy under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi.
• India played a key role in the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and promoting democracy, which improved India's relations with Myanmar.

Current situation

The gains of democracy of the past decade are under threat and India's ability to influence outcomes in its neighbourhood is in question.

Bangladesh

• In August 2024, the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina government following an economic slowdown and violent protest was a setback for India.
• India failed to engage with the opposition in Bangladesh in the past decade, leaving it unprepared for this outcome.
• The present scenario raises questions about India's diplomatic strategies of depending on the leader in power.

Sri Lanka

• In 2022, mass protests over the economic crisis in Sri Lanka resulted in a change in leadership, which created instability in the region.
• India acted maturely over the situation and offered a $4 billion bailout to help Sri Lanka to stabilise the economy.
• The whole incident demonstrated India's ability to act maturely in the time of crisis and offer support during the period of need.

Maldives

• In the 2024 election, Mohamed Muizzu was elected as the President, backed by a coalition.
• The election result was not encouraging for India, as India miscalculated by not engaging with the present president, highlighting a major loophole in India's neighbourhood strategy.
  • • Most of the time, India focuses mainly on strengthening engagement with the political party in power in neighbouring countries.
    • The drawback of the present policy is that India finds itself in an uneven position when the opposition party government comes to neighbouring countries.

Myanmar

• In February 2021 military coups in several regions created chaos in Myanmar.
• The military coup also resulted in the Rohingya crisis.
• India now faces a complex dilemma of whether to engage with military leaders or promote democratic forces in Myanmar, to serve India's interests in a better way.

Afghanistan

• In 2021, the Taliban returned to power by replacing a democratically elected government.
• The incident was a setback for India, as it invested heavily in Afghanistan's development over the past two decades.
• India was excluded from key negotiations by the US and other countries to establish peace and stability in the region.

Way Forward

• India's experience in Bangladesh and Myanmar highlighted the need to maintain relationships across the political line, not dependent only on a few individual leaders or parties in power.
• The situation in Myanmar shows that India must be flexible in its approach by balancing its strategic needs with the changing geopolitical scenario.
  • • India's foreign policy must be flexible to establish relations with undemocratic forces in neighbouring countries to serve the interest of the nation in a Pragmatic manner.
• India's financial support to Sri Lanka and its investment in Afghanistan highlights the power of development assistance as a tool of diplomacy.
  • • India must continue to invest in neighbouring countries as per the needs of the nation.
    • This helps in strengthening the relationship and also generates goodwill for India.

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Source:

The Hindu