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Context:

• India has recently signalled a shift in its approach to address climate change.
• This shift raises questions about the focus on temperature targets, and places the emphasis on adaptation and economic development for countries like India.

India’s Shift in Climate Policy

1. Adaptation Over Mitigation:

• India has shifted its focus from emphasizing emission reduction (mitigation) to prioritizing adaptation.
• While the international climate regime focuses on temperature goals such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C, India believes that adapting to the impacts of climate change is more immediate and relevant for developing countries.
• Adaptation measures such as building resilience against floods, droughts and heat waves provide immediate, local benefits.
• For example, India’s vulnerability to climate impacts such as droughts and floods calls for rapid adaptation measures.

1. Economic Growth as the Best Defense:

• India argues that rapid economic growth is essential for developing countries to address climate change.
• Economic prosperity is seen as crucial to providing the resources needed to build resilience to climate impacts.
  • India has rejected calls to phase out coal usage, which remains a major source of energy for the country.
  • Despite its environmental impact, coal is seen as necessary for rapid industrialization and poverty alleviation.
  • India is the 2nd-largest consumer of coal in the world (after China), and coal accounts for around 70% of India’s total electricity generation.
  • India’s total installed electricity capacity was about 400 GW in 2023. Of this, around 260 GW comes from thermal power (coal, gas, oil), and the rest comes from renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower.

1. Economic Survey 2024-25:

• The Economic Survey 2024-25 says that India should strive to achieve the economic standards of developed countries by 2047 (the centenary year of India's independence) before pursuing a net-zero emissions target set for 2070.
• This framework aligns India’s growth trajectory with its broader developmental and climate goals.
  • Goal of Development: India is aiming to achieve developed country parameters, which include high-income status, infrastructure development, and access to modern amenities.
  • Only after meeting these developmental goals can India focus on strict emission reduction targets.

1. China’s Model:

• India's position reflects China's approach to climate action.
• China has prioritised economic growth over emissions reduction, resulting in a surge in its emissions, which have increased 4-fold since the mid-1990s.
• However, China's rapid economic growth has allowed it to develop the largest renewable energy sector globally, including becoming a world leader in solar panel production and electric vehicle manufacturing.
• Emissions have been rising as China industrialises, but emissions are expected to peak in the next 2-3 years.
• After reaching the peak, China plans to turn to clean energy sources more aggressively.

Challenges in Global Mitigation Efforts

1. Global Emissions Still Rising:

• Despite the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 5°C, emissions have continued to rise.
• In 2023, global CO2 emissions reached around 40 billion tons—an increase of about 2% compared to the previous year.
• This indicates the limited impact of international efforts to curb emissions.
  • Target Shortfall: Countries globally are off-track to meet their emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2035.
  • Developing countries like India have limited incentive to invest heavily in mitigation strategies, as they rely on global cooperation that is not yet materializing.

1. Frustration with International Climate Regimes:

• Developing countries, including India, are frustrated with the lack of significant action from developed nations on both emission reductions and financial contributions.
  • COP29 in Baku (2024): The international climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, witnessed a meager financial package for developing countries, which eroded trust in the climate financing system.
  • The financial commitment of $100 billion annually for developing countries, as promised in the Paris Agreement, remains unfulfilled.
  • Failure of Climate Finance: Developed countries have not made good on their financial obligations to help developing nations adapt to climate change or mitigate its impacts.
  • This has undermined the legitimacy of the international climate regime in the eyes of countries like India.

1. Geopolitical Distractions:

• Global events such as the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under President Trump (2017) and the subsequent increase in fossil fuel production, as well as geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-China technology war, have diverted attention from the climate crisis.
  • US Energy Policies: Under President Trump, the US administration reversed several key climate policies, including the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which further exacerbated the global momentum for climate action.

India’s Unique Trajectory: A Sustainable Path to Growth and Climate Action

1. Decarbonization within Economic Growth:

• India acknowledges that its economic growth must take place on low-carbon pathways to avoid getting left behind in the global transition to clean energy technologies.
  1. As of 2023, India’s renewable energy capacity is around 170 GW, with solar power and wind power accounting for 50% of the renewable energy mix.
  2. India aims to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030.
• India needs to ramp up investments in clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, hydrogen, and nuclear power, to meet its future climate goals.

1. Nuclear Energy and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs):

• Nuclear energy is seen as an important part of India’s clean energy strategy, but progress has been slow.
• India is now exploring Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a potential solution to expand its nuclear energy capacity.
  2047. Nuclear Energy Target: India aims to have 100 GW of nuclear energy capacity by 2047.
  2048. However, nuclear power is likely to account for less than 10% of India’s total electricity capacity.

1. Hydrogen and Other Clean Energy Technologies:

• Alongside nuclear energy, India is looking to expand hydrogen energy and other clean energy technologies as part of its diversified energy mix.
• The country has set a target to become a hydrogen hub by 2030, focusing on green hydrogen production.
  2030. Green Hydrogen Ambitions: India has announced the National Hydrogen Mission to promote green hydrogen production, with an ambitious goal of producing 5 million tons of green hydrogen annually by 2030.

1. Indigenous Clean Energy Manufacturing:

• A significant part of India’s climate strategy will be its push for developing indigenous clean energy manufacturing capabilities to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.
  1. Clean Energy Manufacturing Base: India is focusing on building an indigenous base for solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and green hydrogen.
  2. The government has introduced several schemes, such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, to encourage domestic manufacturing in these sectors.

Conclusion

India's emerging approach to the climate crisis emphasizes a dual focus on economic growth and clean energy transition. While the country advocates climate adaptation and economic growth in the short term, it is also positioning itself to become a leader in clean energy technologies and decarbonization in the long term.

Source:

IndianExpress