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Context:

Israel launched airstrikes targeting military sites in Iran.

Details

On October 26, 2024, Israel conducted airstrikes targeting military sites in Iran as a retaliation for Iran ballistic missile attack on October 1.

The Israeli military described the airstrikes as "precise" but did not provide specific details about the extent of the damage in Iran. The conflict between Israel and Iran affecting peace and stability in west asia.

Iran-Israel Relations

Iran and Israel initially had a good relationship and they cooperated on several issues due to shared concerns about Arab nations.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini changed everything. The new Islamic government viewed Israel as a colonial power. Iran ended ties with Israel and referred it as the "Zionist regime," and refused to recognize it as a Nation.

Iran has supported rebel groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza to expand its influence in the region and oppose Israeli actions, Iran also provided training and equipment to Hezbollah during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982.

Israel sees Iran as a significant threat and has taken various actions to counter it. This includes conducting airstrikes against Iranian positions in Syria, also targeted Iranian nuclear scientists to hinder Iran's nuclear program.

The conflict between ran-Israel has resulted in multiple wars and military clashes. Notable conflicts include military operations in Gaza in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2021, and the recent clashes in 2023-2024.

Since October 2023, Israel has faced challenges on multiple fronts. It is engaged in combat against Hamas, a militant group in the Gaza Strip, while also dealing with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Main Allies of Israel

The U.S. provides significant military aid and diplomatic support.

United Kingdom and France have historically supported Israel, providing diplomatic backing and military assistance when needed.

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) do not support Hamas and are secretly helping Israel. Although they may publicly criticize some of Israel's actions.

Main Allies of Iran

Hamas governs Gaza and has been in conflict with Israel for many years. Iran provides financial and military support to Hamas.

Hezbollah based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a powerful militia with deep ties to Iran. It also fights against Israel.

In Yemen, the Houthis are rebels backed by Iran, and they have launched attacks against Israel.

Israel-Iran Conflict: Potential Impact

The continuous struggle can destabilize regional peace and stability and expand the violence in neighboring countries like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. Increase in the intensity of the proxy war in the region, rebel groups backed by Iran will further deteriorate the regional stability.

The region is a major producer of crude oil, therefore, any conflict will disturb the global oil supply chain, which will result in the increasing cost of oil price.

Increasing conflict will result in violence that will displace many people and ultimately create a humanitarian crisis.

The conflict in the region promotes arms race, which will promote countries to spend large amounts of resources on arms and ammunition, which will further deteriorate the condition of the people living in those countries, and also increase regional tension.

Increasing intensity of proxy war will influence the rise of many rebel groups which will promote terrorism in the region. For example; Rise of Taliban during USSR invasion of Afghanistan. Earlier supported by the US against the USSR, later became a global threat.

The involvement of major powers like USA, China, Russia in this conflict complicates the issue, as every country has its own priority and history of conflict, which can hamper the peace negotiation and long term stability.

Impact on India

India depends heavily on oil import, approximately 85% of crude oil comes from outside, and a large size of this comes from the middle east. Therefore any disruption in oil supplies will increase the oil price in India, which will increase the import bill and also result in inflation.

The Middle East is an important trade route for India, especially the Swiss canal, Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The increasing conflict in the region will impact trade through this route, which will impact India’s International trade and also low demand from domestic manufactures.

India faces difficulties in managing its relation with both Israel and Iran, it will be a challenge for India's foreign policy to balance its interest with both nations.

Increasing conflict in the Middle East impacts India's interest, as the Indian government and Indian companies have invested heavily in the region, and also people from India migrated to work there, so an increase in conflict will threaten their safety and present a significant challenge for the government.

What Steps India can take

India needs to invest heavily on diversifying its energy sources to ensure energy security, and minimizing its dependence on foreign countries.

There is a need to explore new markets for Indian export so that the dependency on few markets can be reduced, which will increase export, and also help in risk management during regional conflicts.

India needs to continuously promote diplomatic efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region and to promote itself as a neutral party, to promote dialogue between the conflicting parties and engage in multilateral forum to advocate a peaceful resolution.

As the situation becomes tense, India needs to develop a comprehensive evacuation plan and prepare for the situation to evacuate its citizens.

India can also collaborate with international organization to provide humanitarian Services in the region to strengthen its soft power.

Way Forward

Diplomatic engagements need to be promoted, the regional players and the global players need to play the role of mediator instead of taking sides. Neutral parties or international organizations can help to initiate the negotiation in the reason to promote peace and stability.

There is a need to establish a regional dialogue forum where the main stakeholders in the Middle East can present their concerns and viewpoint to resolve the issues with the talk and dialogue in a peaceful environment instead of going into conflict and war.

To address the increasing arms race in the region, there is a need to establish demilitarized zones and formulate non-proliferation agreements.

The immediate need is to declare a ceasefire agreement to prevent further conflict and start a peace process to reduce the aggressive action in the region. Humanitarian initiatives must be launched to address the needs of the affected population and to generate goodwill and an environment of empathy.

Economic Cooperation to rebuild the region needs to be discussed. Economic integration between the countries in the region will strengthen their relation and also reduce the hostility towards each other.

The United Nations must take the step to mediate the conflict and ensure compliance with international law. It can provide a platform to discuss the peace process and rebuilding the region, and ensure stability and prosperity.

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