ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT

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Context:

The conflict between Israel and Iran, involves many different countries and groups, each with their interests and alliances.

Background

Early History (Before 1948)

1. Before World War I, the area known as Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire. It had a small Jewish minority and a large Arab majority.
2. After the war, Britain took control of Palestine under a mandate from the League of Nations. Britain was tasked with creating a "national home" for Jewish people, a commitment based on the Balfour Declaration of 1917.
3. Many Jews, especially survivors of the Holocaust, started moving to Palestine, leading to tensions with the Arab population.

Creation of Israel (1948)

1. In 1947, the United Nations proposed splitting Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states. The Jewish leaders accepted this plan, but the Arabs rejected it.
2. In 1948, Britain left, and Jewish leaders declared the creation of the State of Israel. Immediately, Arab nations attacked, leading to a war that ended with Israel controlling much of the land.
3. Many Palestinians fled or were forced out of their homes, an event they refer to as Al Nakba ("The Catastrophe").

Wars and Occupation

1. 1967 Six-Day War: In 1967, Israel fought another war, gaining control of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and other territories. Since then, Israel has built settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which are considered illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this.
2. Israel occupied Gaza until 2005, then withdrew its troops and settlers. However, it still controls Gaza’s borders, airspace, and sea access. 
3. In 2006, Hamas, an Islamist militant group, won elections in Gaza. Since then, it has fought several wars with Israel. Hamas aims to destroy Israel, which it considers an occupying force.

Why Is There Conflict Now?

Hamas launched a major attack on Israel in October 2023, leading to intense fighting. Israel responded with airstrikes on Gaza. The conflict stems from unresolved issues such as Palestinian refugees' right to return, the status of Jewish settlements, control of Jerusalem, and the creation of a Palestinian state.

International Involvement

1. Support for Israel: The US and many Western countries support Israel, providing military aid and diplomatic backing.
2. Support for Palestinians: Countries like Iran support Hamas, while Russia and China call for both sides to engage in dialogue without openly condemning Hamas.

Iran-Israel Conflict

Initially, Iran and Israel had a good relationship, they saw common threats in Arab nations and cooperated closely. However, situation changed after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The new Islamic government, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, viewed Israel as a colonial power broke all ties, and referred  Israel as the "Zionist regime" and stopped recognizing it as a state.

Despite the break in formal relations, some connections remained. For example, during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Israel secretly supported Iran, seeing it as a way to weaken Iraq, which was seen as a threat. Israel provided military supplies and even destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 to curb its nuclear ambitions.

Over the years, Iran has backed various militant groups, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian organizations like Hamas. These groups are often used by Iran to exert influence in the region and oppose Israeli actions. For example, during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Iran trained and equipped Hezbollah, which later became a significant force against Israel.

Iran's support for Palestinian groups originates from its ideological belief in supporting the Palestinian cause. Iranian leaders use this support to earn favour among Sunni and Arab populations, attempting to show themselves as defenders of the oppressed.

Israel has taken various steps to counter the threat. It has conducted airstrikes against Iranian positions in Syria and targeted Iranian nuclear scientists to hinder Iran's nuclear program. Israel sees Iran as a significant threat, accusing it of wanting to destroy the Israeli state.

The conflict has led to several wars and military conflicts, notably between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as various clashes with Palestinian groups in Gaza. These include major military operations in Gaza in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2021, and recently in 2023-2024.

Israel has been dealing with several enemies at once since October 2023. It’s mainly fighting Hamas (a militant group) in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, but at the same time, it has to protect itself from attacks by Hezbollah and others.

Iran has long supported groups like Hezbollah and Hamas as a way to challenge Israel. But recently, it has taken things further by launching direct attacks on Israel. For example, in October 2024, Iran fired missiles at Israel after the deaths of key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. This shows Iran is becoming more openly involved.

Saudi Arabia's Role

Saudi Arabia is in a tough position. While it has strong security ties with Israel, it’s also trying to maintain peace with Iran after the two countries restored diplomatic relations in 2023. For example, Saudi Arabia has condemned some of Israel’s actions but also passed on intelligence about Iran’s plans to attack Israel earlier this year.

Qatar’s Role

Qatar is trying to be a mediator. It helped negotiate the release of Israeli hostages in November 2023, but it also hosts Hamas leaders, which Israel doesn’t like. Despite this, Qatar is home to the largest U.S. military base in the region, which makes it an important player.

Jordan’s Role

Jordan also tries to balance its actions. It has sent aid to Gaza while maintaining its peace treaty with Israel, which was signed in 1994. Earlier this year, Jordan even shot down missiles from Iran aimed at Israel, showing that it’s willing to take action when necessary.

Other Players

1. Egypt: Relations with Israel have become tense, especially after Israel took control of a key border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. In May 2023, an Egyptian soldier was killed in a clash at the border.
2. Syria and Iraq: These countries host militias that work with Iran. They often carry out attacks on U.S. military bases, especially if they feel threatened by Israeli or American actions.
3. Turkey: Under President Erdogan, Turkey has criticised Israel and supported Palestinians. Turkey’s relationship with Israel worsened after it arrested 30 Mossad agents, Israel’s intelligence officers.

Potential Impact of the Israel-Iran Conflict  

1. The Middle East is a major oil-producing region. Conflict between Israel and Iran can disrupt oil supplies, leading to higher global oil prices. This affects economies worldwide, increasing costs for transportation and goods.
2. The conflict can escalate tensions in the region, involving other countries and potentially leading to broader conflicts. This instability can affect global security and international relations.
3. Increased geopolitical tensions can lead to economic uncertainty. Stock markets may become volatile, and businesses might delay investments due to the unpredictable environment.

Impact on India

1. India imports a significant portion of its oil from the Middle East. Disruptions in oil supply due to the conflict can lead to higher oil prices, impacting India’s energy security and increasing inflation.
2. The conflict can affect key shipping routes like the Red Sea, which are vital for global trade. Disruptions here can increase shipping costs and affect the availability of goods in India.
3. Higher oil prices and increased inflation can slow down economic growth. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might have to adjust its monetary policies to manage inflation, affecting interest rates and economic stability.
4. India has a large diaspora in the Middle East. Any escalation in conflict can pose risks to their safety and well-being, prompting the Indian government to take measures for their protection.
5. India needs to balance its relationships with both Israel and Iran. The conflict can complicate India’s diplomatic efforts and require careful navigation to maintain good relations with both countries.

Way Forward

1. The global community, including the United Nations and major powers like the US, Russia, and the EU, should strengthen diplomatic efforts to mediate between Israel and Iran. Establishing dialogue channels can help de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflict.
2. Encouraging regional cooperation through platforms like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) can promote dialogue and reduce hostilities. Engaging neighbouring countries in peace talks can create a more stable environment.
3. Implementing targeted sanctions on entities that escalate the conflict while offering economic incentives for peace can pressure both sides to negotiate. This approach can help mitigate the economic impact on global markets.
4. Coordinated efforts by oil-producing countries to stabilise oil markets can reduce the economic fallout from the conflict. This includes increasing production to offset supply disruptions.
5. Strengthening international security cooperation to monitor and prevent the expansion of weapons in the region can reduce the risk of escalation. This includes intelligence sharing and joint military exercises.
6. Deploying UN peacekeeping missions in conflict zones can help maintain ceasefires and protect civilians. These missions can provide a buffer between conflicting parties and support humanitarian efforts.

Conclusion

The Israel-Iran conflict has created a complex network of alliances in the Middle East. While Israel has strong support from Western countries like the U.S. and quiet backing from some Arab states, Iran is using its network of militias and allies to challenge Israel on multiple fronts. The situation is sensitive, and any major escalation could involve more countries.

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Source: 

India Today

BBC

Wikipedia