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India's diplomacy will face geopolitical uncertainties in 2025 due to Trump's return, regional crises, and changing neighbourhood dynamics.
2025 will present both promising opportunities and significant challenges for India. Diplomatically, India will host important events like the Quad Leaders’ Summit and a possible India-EU summit.
The Prime Minister might also travel to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The year will be influenced by the return of Donald Trump as the U.S. president, which could create ripple effects globally.
Trump's approach to foreign policy includes withdrawing from ongoing wars and imposing tariffs on trade rivals, has prompted concern among many nations.
His leadership will likely promote tensions in U.S.-China relations and affect the global economic balance.
Countries, including India, will be closely monitoring his decisions, as these could have long-term impacts on international relations and global stability.
Bangladesh has experienced protests leading to regime change, Sri Lanka has a new leftist president dealing with Tamil aspirations, and the Maldives has seen some positive signalling despite an anti-India stance.
These changes present both challenges and opportunities for India. The political developments in these countries will need careful diplomatic attention to ensure regional stability and strengthen India’s influence in South Asia.
As the Ukraine war enters its third year, India's role as a neutral party and potential mediator is important. The diplomatic challenge is to find a balance between its relationships with Russia and the West.
India can provide a neutral forum for peace talks or encourage dialogue between opposing parties. However, before engaging in this peaceful negotiation process, India must carefully consider the potential risks and benefits.
India and China have made some progress in de-escalating tensions, particularly with the disengagement of troops along the Ladakh border. However, trust remains a significant barrier.
India will closely watch whether China keeps its end of the bargain on de-escalation and troop withdrawal. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to China for the SCO summit and possible meetings with President Xi Jinping could be crucial in promoting dialogue.
The year will be a test of China’s commitment to normalizing relations with India, particularly in economic and security matters.
India continues to maintain its policy of indifference toward Pakistan, refusing to engage in cricket or diplomatic talks as long as cross-border terrorism persists. The recent attacks in Jammu have reinforced India’s stance that talks and terror cannot go together.
Pakistan’s involvement in regional security matters remains a sensitive issue, and for now, India's focus will remain on strengthening defense and diplomatic ties with other regional partners.
The rise of far-right political campaigns and immigration debates have complicated India's negotiations with European nations.
Immigration could become a controversial issue, especially as India negotiates a free trade agreement with the EU.
These factors make India’s engagement with Europe complicated, which require careful diplomacy to ensure favourable outcomes for India.
Africa will likely become a focal point in India’s foreign policy in 2025. Both India and African countries are aiming for greater engagement, and there is talk of hosting a summit in Ethiopia.
As India looks to enhance its influence in Africa, it will need to focus on trade, investment, and strategic partnerships with key African nations.
The assassination of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar has weakened India’s relations with Canada, especially after accusations from Canada that India was involved. This has complicated India’s broader relationship with the U.S. as well, as these issues touch upon transnational politics and international norms.
India faces a reputational challenge that needs to be managed diplomatically to maintain global status, especially among Western allies.
India's approach towards regional and international issues will be shaped by its ability to manage complex relationships across the globe, from neighbours to major powers like the US, Russia, and China.
India will have to balance its own strategic interests with global stability, focusing on engaging with Africa, strengthening its position in Asia, and managing the uncertainties surrounding the US and Europe.
India’s foreign policy will have to be proactive, responsive, pragmatic and deeply aware of the shifting geopolitical landscape.
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