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Context: US authorities have warned Russia not to invade Ukraine and urged both countries to return to a set of agreements designed to end a separatist war by Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

 

Background:

• Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
• As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.
• Ever since Ukraine split from the Soviet Union, both Russia and the West have vied for greater influence in the country in order to keep the balance of power in the region in their favour.

What are the roots of the Russia-Ukraine standoff?

• Ukraine, which was part of the Russian empire for centuries and won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991.
• The country has moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West.
• A decision by Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Moscow sparked mass protests that led to his ouster in 2014.
• Russia responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
• Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels.
• A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany helped to end large-scale battles, but efforts to reach a political settlement have failed.

What are Minsk Agreements?                                                         

MINSK I

• Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed a 12-point ceasefire deal in the capital of Belarus in September 2014.
• Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of heavy weapons
• The agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.

MINSK II

• Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed a 13-point agreement in February 2015 in Minsk.
• The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine gathered there at the same time and issued a declaration of support for the deal.
• A major blockage has been Russia’s insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms.

The 13 points were, in brief: 1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire 2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides 3. Monitoring and verification by the OSCE 4. To start a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledge their special status by a resolution of parliament. 5. A pardon and amnesty for people involved in the fighting 6. An exchange of hostages and prisoners. 7. Provision of humanitarian assistance. 8. Resumption of socio-economic ties, including pensions. 9. Restore full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine. 10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries. 11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk. 12. Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk on terms to be agreed with their representatives. 13. Intensify the work of a Trilateral Contact Group including representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.

The latest Russian buildup:

• Ukraine says Russia has amassed 90,000 troops at the border, and US intelligence reports say that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is possible.
• Russia is not happy with efforts of U.S. and EU to induct Ukraine into U.S. lead military alliance NATO.

                     

What does Moscow want?

• Russia has accused Ukraine of failing to honour the 2015 peace deal and criticized the West for failing to encourage Ukrainian compliance.
• Russia has rejected a four-way meeting with Ukraine, France and Germany, saying it's useless in view of Ukraine’s refusal to abide by the 2015 agreement.
• It strongly criticized the U.S. and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and holding joint drills.
• Moscow wants to see an end to NATO's eastward expansion, after much of eastern Europe joined the alliance following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• Russia describes Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” and claims that Ukraine has unfairly received historic Russian lands during Soviet times.

What is the US' role in these tensions?

• For the United States and the European Union, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
• As tensions with Russia rise, the US and the EU are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away from Russian control.

Recent developments:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and paved the way to provide them military support.
• The rebel-held self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR/DPR and LNR/LPR) in Eastern Ukraine have started evacuating civilians to the Rostov region in Russia claiming an impending Ukrainian military offensive.
• The Donbass region, comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, has been at the centre of the conflict since March 2014 when Moscow invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

                            

How Western governments are responding?

• Western governments are warning Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions.
• Donbass region recognition “would further undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, (and) call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis”.

How UN is responding?

• The United Nations opened an emergency Security Council meeting on the deepening Ukraine crisis.
• Russia, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council, had wanted the Security Council session to be closed but the United States insisted it be public.

 

India’s stand:

• India adopted a balanced approach at the UN Security Council where it called for a diplomatic dialogue to de-escalate the situation.
• Adoption of “Quiet and constructive diplomacy” is the need of the hour and any step that could escalate the tension should be avoided.
• India pitched for immediate de-escalation of the situation.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/minsk-agreements-ukraine-conflict-7784444/