Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)

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Context

• Many media reports and politicians have misinterpreted and sensationalized the findings from a working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)”.

Incorrect Impressions Created by Reports

• Muslim Population Growth: These reports inaccurately suggest that the Muslim population in India is growing at an alarming rate.
• Threat to Hindu Population: Some interpretations falsely create the impression that this growth poses a threat to the Hindu population.

Consequences of Misinterpretation

• Divisive Political Narrative: Such sensationalism fuels divisive political narratives.
• Misinformed Public: The public is often left misinformed about the realities of population issues.

Clarifying Population Growth Dynamics

• Balanced Growth: The actual data from the EAC-PM report does not support the exaggerated claims of rapid Muslim population growth.
• Demographic Trends: The demographic trends presented in the report are consistent with broader global patterns and do not indicate a significant threat to the Hindu population.

Need for Accurate Reporting

• Responsible Media: Media outlets should strive for accuracy and avoid sensationalism when reporting on sensitive topics such as population growth.
• Educating the Public: Clear, factual communication is essential to educate the public and prevent the spread of misinformation.

SHARE OF RELIGIOUS MINORITIES: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS (1950-2015)

Limitations of the Working Paper

The working paper states: “the actual reasons for the change in the religious demography of a country is a multivariate phenomenon in a complex system and the depth of analysis required to pinpoint the exact variable responsible for change in religious demography is beyond the scope of the paper.”

Flawed Assertions and Misleading Conclusions

• Assertion on Thriving Minorities: Despite acknowledging its limitations, the paper makes a flawed assertion that the growth in the Muslim population indicates that minorities are thriving in India.
• Misinterpretation of Fertility Data: There is no evidence to suggest that an increase in fertility alone indicates a flourishing population.

Importance of Socio-Economic Context

Data and Socio-Economic Development

Interpreting population data within the context of socio-economic development is crucial.

• Influence of Socio-Economic Factors: The number of children a family chooses to have is influenced more by socio-economic factors such as education and economic conditions than by religion.
• Impact of Development: Communities with better access to education, health care, and economic opportunities tend to have lower fertility rates.

Understanding Fertility Rates

• Education: Higher levels of education, especially among women, are associated with lower fertility rates.
• Economic Conditions: Improved economic conditions and employment opportunities lead to a decrease in the number of children per family.
• Health Care Access: Access to health care, including family planning services, significantly influences fertility rates.

High Population Growth Rate and Human Development

A high population growth rate does not indicate that people are necessarily doing well. It often highlights shortcomings in levels of human development.

• Indicator of Development Issues: A higher growth rate may reflect insufficient access to education, health care, and economic opportunities.
• Muslim Population Growth: The higher growth rate of India’s Muslim population compared to the Hindu population is a result of the Muslim community lagging behind on many human development indicators.

Low Growth Rate and Socio-Economic Factors

Conversely, a low growth rate or decline in population does not imply persecution or hostility.

• Socio-Economic Improvements: It can reflect improved socio-economic conditions, such as better access to education and health care, leading to lower fertility rates.
• Higher Emigration Rates: A low growth rate might also indicate higher rates of emigration in search of better opportunities.

Cross-Country Analysis by EAC-PM

The EAC-PM study uses the Religious Characteristics of States-Demographic (RCS-DEM) dataset to conduct a cross-country analysis of 167 countries.

• Dataset Details: The RCS-DEM database provides detailed information on the demographic characteristics of various religious groups across countries.
• Study Period: The paper analyzes population data from 1950 to 2015.

Explaining the Changes

There are three ways to explain the changes in the composition of the population of various communities:

1. Absolute Increase in Population

• Hindu Population Growth: Between 1950-2015, India’s Hindu population grew by 701 million — almost five times more than the increase in the Muslim population of 146 million.
• Muslim Population Growth: Although the absolute increase in the Muslim population is significant, it remains much smaller compared to the Hindu population increase.

2. Proportional Changes in Population

• Hindu Population Proportion: The proportion of the Hindu population fell by 6.64 percentage points, from 84.7% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015.
• Muslim Population Proportion: The proportion of the Muslim population increased by 4.25 percentage points, from 9.84% in 1950 to 14.09% in 2015.
• Contextualizing Changes: Given the starting figures in 1950 (306 million Hindus and 35.5 million Muslims), these proportional changes are relatively minor. There is no threat of Muslims overtaking Hindus in population numbers.

3. Rate of Change in Individual Shares

• Hindu Population Share: There was a decline of 7.8% in the share of the Hindu population between 1950-2015.
• Muslim Population Share: There was an increase of 43.2% in the share of the Muslim population in the same period.

Contextualizing the Rate of Change

• Statistical Expectation: Given that the proportion of Hindus (84.7%) was much larger compared to Muslims (9.8%) in 1950, the rate of change is expected to appear more significant for Muslims.

Comparison with Other Religious Groups:

• Buddhists: The rate of change in share shows an increase of 1519.6%.
• Sikhs: The rate of change in share shows an increase of 49.2%.
• Parsis: The rate of change in share shows a decline of 86.7%.

Misinterpretation of Figures

• Misleading Nature of Statistics: The significant percentage changes can be misleading without proper context. For instance, the large increase in the share of Buddhists or Sikhs does not imply a demographic reshaping or conspiracy.
• Parsis' Decline: Similarly, the decline in the rate of change for Parsis' share does not indicate targeted persecution.

Conclusion

• The changes in the composition of religious populations in India need to be understood with a nuanced perspective.
• Absolute increases, proportional changes, and rates of change in population shares must be contextualized within the larger demographic and socio-economic framework.
• Sensationalizing these figures without proper context leads to misinterpretations and fuels divisive narratives.
• Accurate reporting and a deeper understanding of demographic data are crucial for fostering informed and balanced public discourse.

SOURCE: THE HINDU