SIPRI REPORT

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Context

• Increase in China's nuclear arsenal from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, with expectations of further growth.

Details

China's Nuclear Arsenal Expansion:

• China's nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023.
• SIPRI estimates suggest that China's arsenal is expected to continue growing.
• There is a possibility that China could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the U.S. or Russia by the end of the decade.

India's Nuclear Arsenal Expansion:

• India's nuclear arsenal grew from 160 warheads in 2022 to 164 in 2023.
• India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China.
• India is in the process of upgrading its ballistic missiles, including the development of a submarine-launched intermediate-range ballistic missile and the induction of the 'Agni Prime' ballistic missile.

Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal Expansion:

• Pakistan's nuclear arsenal increased from 165 warheads in 2022 to 170 in 2023.
• While Pakistan remains the main focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India's emphasis is shifting towards longer-range weapons.

Global Nuclear Arsenal Modernization:

• The nine nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals.
• Several countries deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022.

Global Inventory and Distribution of Warheads:

• In January 2023, the total global inventory of estimated warheads reached 12,512.
• Approximately 9,576 warheads were in military stockpiles for potential use, marking an increase of 86 compared to January 2022.
• Russia and the U.S. together possess nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons.

Impact of Ukraine Conflict on Arms Control:

• In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the U.S. suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia.
• Russia announced its suspension of participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).
• Talks about a follow-on treaty to New START, which expires in 2026, were also suspended.
• However, as of January 2023, both countries' deployed strategic nuclear forces remained within the New START limits.

Background of Arms Race

Cold War Origins:

• The Cold War, which lasted from the late 1940s to the early 1990s, was a period of intense rivalry and ideological conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union (now Russia).
• The arms race between the two superpowers defined much of the Cold War era, with both sides developing and stockpiling nuclear weapons and advanced military technologies.

China's Emergence:

• China, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, initially aligned itself with the Soviet Union during the early years of the Cold War.
• However, ideological and political differences between China and the Soviet Union led to a split, known as the Sino-Soviet split, in the late 1950s, shifting China's alignment.

Nuclear Weapons Development:

• The United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a race to develop and improve nuclear weapons capabilities, resulting in the production of thousands of warheads.
• China, recognizing the strategic importance of nuclear weapons, conducted its first nuclear test in 1964 and became the world's fifth nuclear-armed state.

Modern Arms Race:

• Following the end of the Cold War, the United States remained the world's preeminent military power, while Russia sought to maintain its influence and capabilities.
• China, experiencing rapid economic growth and military modernization, emerged as a major global player, challenging the dominance of the United States.

Technological Advancements:

• Advancements in military technologies, such as missile defense systems, hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare capabilities, and space-based assets, have become key areas of competition.
• Each country seeks to develop and deploy cutting-edge military technologies to maintain their strategic advantage and deter potential adversaries.

Regional Power Struggles:

• The arms race is not limited to nuclear weapons but extends to conventional military capabilities as well.
• Competing interests in regions such as the South China Sea, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East have led to a buildup of conventional forces and increased tensions.

Strategic Considerations:

• Each country's military buildup and modernization efforts are driven by its national security interests, regional influence, and the desire to protect and project power globally.
• Perceptions of threat, alliance dynamics, and the pursuit of strategic deterrence shape their arms race strategies.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/china-could-potentially-have-as-many-icbms-as-us-or-russia-by-turn-of-decade-sipri/article66961196.ece