TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS

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Context

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus appears to be another attempt to raise the stakes in the conflict in Ukraine.

Possible consequences behind Putin’s move

• With his latest statement, Putin again is dangling the nuclear threat to signal Moscow’s readiness to escalate the war in Ukraine.
• The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which has a 1,084-kilometer border with Ukraine, would allow Russian aircraft and missiles to reach potential targets there more easily and quickly if Moscow decides to use them.
• It would also extend Russia’s capability to target several NATO members in Eastern and Central Europe.

Reactions from Ukraine and the West

• Ukraine has responded to Putin’s move by calling for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.
• NATO rejects Putin’s claim that Russia only is doing what the US has done for decades, saying that Western allies act with full respect for their international commitments.

Tactical Nuclear Weapons

About

• Tactical (nonstrategic) nuclear weapons (TNWs) typically refer to short-range weapons; within the U.S.-Soviet (Russian) context, this means land-based missiles with a range of less than 500 km and air- and sea-launched weapons with a range of less than 600 km.
• France classifies all its currently deployed nuclear weapons as strategic; China also classifies many nuclear weapons as strategic.

Worldwide TNW Arsenals

• TNWs constitute a large percentage of the arsenals of the nuclear weapon states:
  • 30-40% of the American and Russian arsenals,
  • nearly 100% of the Chinese and French arsenals, and
  • all of the Israeli, Indian, and Pakistani arsenals;
  • Great Britain no longer has short-range nuclear weapons.

TNWs in Russia

• Unlike strategic weapons, which have been subject to arms control agreements between Moscow and Washington, tactical weapons never have been limited by any such pacts, and Russia hasn’t released their numbers or any other specifics related to them.
• While strategic nuclear weapons are fitted to land- or submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles that are constantly ready for launch, tactical nuclear weapons are stored at a few tightly guarded storage facilities in Russia, and it takes time to deliver them to combat units.
• Some Russian hawks long have urged the Kremlin to send a warning to the West by moving some tactical nuclear weapons closer to the aircraft and missiles intended to deliver them.

Arms Control Regime

• TNWs are the least-regulated category of nuclear weapons covered in arms control agreements.
• They are only subject to an informal regime created by unilateral, parallel declarations made by George Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev in the fall of 1991.

The Dangers Associated with TNWs

• Their small size and the absence of electronic locks or Permissive Action Links (PALs) on older versions contribute to their vulnerability to theft and unauthorized use.
• TNWs were intended for the use in battlefield and theatre-level operations in conjunction with conventional forces. These missions encourage their forward-basing and can make the decision to use TNWs psychologically and operationally easier.
• The very existence of TNWs in national arsenals increases the risk of proliferation and reduces the nuclear threshold, making the nuclear balance less stable.

The Role of TNWs in the post-Cold War World

• In Russia, TNWs acquired greater significance because of the deterioration of Russia's conventional forces and its growing reliance on nuclear arms as a "poor man's" counter to the "revolution in military affairs" and technological breakthroughs in costly, advanced conventional arms by the United States. The Road Ahead

Analysis

• The new perception of the usability of nuclear weapons in Russia could create a dangerous precedent for other countries, leading them to believe that nuclear weapons could provide tangible political and military benefits and increasing propensity to acquire nuclear capability.
• For that reason, it seems highly desirable to strengthen the non-nuclear regime on TNWs.

International Agreements relating to Nuclear Weapons

The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• Widespread international concern about the spiralling number of nuclear weapons in the world led to the establishment of the NPT in 1968, a UN treaty which sought to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and bring about eventual disarmament.
• While the treaty actually consists of eleven articles, it is more commonly understood as having three ‘pillars’; non-proliferation, disarmament and the right to develop nuclear energy.
• Five nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA) are recognised in the treaty.
• All other signatories are understood to be non-nuclear states and pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons, while the nuclear weapon states commit not to transfer nuclear weapons to any non-nuclear state, or support them getting these in any way. This is the non-proliferation pillar.
• In return, the nuclear weapon states commit to take measures towards disarmament, the second pillar. Article VI of the NPT states: ‘Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.’
• The treaty explicitly states the right of all signatories to develop and use civil nuclear power – the third pillar.
• The treaty effectively meant that non-nuclear weapons states agreed to remain so while the nuclear powers could hold on to their weapons for the time being. India, for example, refused to sign on this basis and still hasn’t to this day.
• 190 countries have signed however, although North Korea withdrew from the agreement in 2003.
• Eventually coming into force in 1970, the ultimate aim of the treaty is global disarmament, although it does not include a process for making that happen.
• Four countries which haven’t signed are known or assumed to possess nuclear weapons – as well as North Korea and India, Pakistan and Israel are not signatories.
• The NPT is reviewed every five years at international conferences. The latest review conference took place in 2015, but ended without agreement.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

• The United Nations adopted a historic international treaty banning nuclear weapons in July 2017.
• The new treaty will make it illegal under international law for signatories to develop, test, produce, manufacture, acquire, possess, stockpile, transfer, use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.
• It also makes it illegal to assist or encourage anyone to engage in these activities.
• The treaty opened for signature in September 2017 and will enter into force 90 days after 50 states sign and ratify.
• Once this happens, the treaty is legally binding on those states that have signed and ratified it.

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

• The original START was signed by the US and Soviet Union in July 1991, building on earlier arms reduction and limitation treaties between the two superpowers.
• START I limited the number of heavy bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), to 1,600 in total. These delivery systems were then limited to deploying no more than 6,000 nuclear warheads. START I expired in December 2009.
• START II and III never entered into force. Signed in 1993 by the US and Russia, the START II treaty aimed to decrease the number of warheads possessed by both countries even further and ban the use of ICBMs with the capability to simultaneously fire at multiple targets.
• A framework for a START III treaty was agreed in 1997. It proposed a limit of between 2,000 and 2,500 warheads for each country.
• A new START treaty, officially named ‘Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms’, was signed by the US and Russia in April 2010 and entered into force in February 2011. This treaty commits the signatories to reducing their number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 with a limit of 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers and heavy bombers.

Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT)

• Signed in Moscow in 2002, SORT was a treaty in which the US and Russia agreed to limit their nuclear arsenal to between 1,700 and 2,200 operationally deployed warheads each.
• It was eventually superseded by the new START.

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)

• The INF treaty, as it became known, was signed in 1987 by the Soviet Union and US and entered into force in June 1988.
• The treaty agreed elimination of each side’s ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km. It also allowed for verification of the reductions.

Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT)

• Amid growing concerns about the environmental and health impacts caused by the radioactive fallout from extensive nuclear weapons testing programmes in the 1950s, this treaty entered into force in October 1963.
• The PTBT bans nuclear weapons testing under water, in the atmosphere and in outer space.
• France, China and North Korea have not signed the treaty.
• After the PTBT came into force further atmospheric nuclear weapons testing was carried out by France in 1974 and China in 1980.

The Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) and the Peaceful Nuclear Explosion Treaty (PNET)

• The TTBT and PNET are two bilateral treaties negotiated concurrently between the US and former Soviet Union which capped the explosive power at 150 kilotons for both military test purposes (TTBT) and civil test purposes (PNET), for example for mining or quarrying or creating dams.
• The TTBT was signed in 1974 and the PNET was signed in 1976; both treaties finally entered into force in December 1990.

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

• The Partial Test Ban Treaty does not ban underground nuclear weapons testing and so the nuclear weapon states continued developing and improving their warheads by this means.
• This kind of underground testing still meant environmental damage and contamination, however, with each test creating highly radioactive underground caverns and much radioactive gas and dust which could escape into the air.
• The US, France and Russia announced a moratorium in 1992 (though France conducted a further six tests between 1995 and 1996). Britain, which had used the US Nevada site for many years, joined in.
• From this the CTBT was eventually negotiated and opened for signature in 1996.
• Although it has been signed and ratified by most states in the world, to enter into force it still needs to be ratified by all 44 of the states identified as having nuclear power or research reactors (and thus the potential capability to produce nuclear weapons).
• Of these states, Pakistan, North Korea and India have not yet signed. The United States, China, Egypt, Iran and Israel have signed but not ratified the treaty.

Outer Space Treaty

• This multilateral agreement entered into force in 1967 and bans the siting of weapons of mass destruction in space.
• In particular, nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction may not orbit the Earth, be installed on the Moon or other celestial bodies.
• All nine states believed to have nuclear weapons are parties to this treaty.

Nuclear Weapons-Free Zones

• There are five large areas in the world that have been designated nuclear weapons-free zones under special treaties: Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia and Africa.
• Countries within these zones agree not to develop, test or possess nuclear weapons.
• Additional nuclear weapons-free zones have been agreed for Antarctica and the seabed.
• Mongolia has declared itself nuclear weapon-free, a status which has been recognised by the United Nations.

Treaty of Semipalatinsk: This agreement was signed in 2006 and designates Central Asia a nuclear weapons-free zone

Treaty of Tlatelolco: This agreement came into force in 1969 and commits all 33 states of Latin America and the Caribbean to remain free of nuclear weapons.

Treaty of Rarotonga: Signed in 1985, this treaty prohibits nuclear explosive devices in the South Pacific, as well as banning the testing and use of nuclear explosive technologies.

Bangkok Treaty: This agreement commits ten Southeast Asian nations to a region free of nuclear explosive devices.

Treaty of Pelindaba: The African states became an official nuclear weapons-free zone in 2009, with the entry into force of this agreement.

Antarctic Treaty: Since 1961, this agreement has obliged the international community to only use Antarctica for peaceful purposes.

Seabed Treaty: This agreement entered into force in 1972 with the purpose of forbidding the siting of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction on the seabed or ocean floor over 12 miles away from any coast.

Nuclear Weapon-Free Status of Mongolia: The Mongolian government declared itself a Single State Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone (SS-NWFZ) in 1992. This UN recognised status came into force in 2000.

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