Description

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Context:

China recently approved the construction of the world's largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (also known as the Zangbo River), located in Tibet.

Details

On completion, the 60,000 MW project will have the capacity to produce three times the amount of electricity as the world’s largest hydro project, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze in central China.

From Tibet, the Yarlung Tsangpo enters Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang. In Assam, it is joined by tributaries such as Dibang and Lohit, and is called the Brahmaputra. The river then enters Bangladesh, and makes its way to the Bay of Bengal.

An infrastructure project of the scale that China is planning on the Yarlung Tsangpo could affect millions living in these regions, their livelihoods, and the ecology.

What is the Yarlung Tsangpo project?

The Project is to be the world's largest hydropower project, planned at the "Great Bend" of the river in Medog County, Tibet, where it turns one way before entering Arunachal Pradesh. The project is part of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025).

Location and Planning Phase

The project site was chosen strategically for its hydropower potential.

Recent activities such as fund allocation, the construction of smaller dams, and upstream land use changes indicate that the project is in an advanced stage of planning.

China's Goals for the Project

Reduce dependence on conventional energy sources.

Achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060. Take advantage of the river's steep descent for efficient hydropower generation.

The Scale of China's Dams

The Three Gorges Dam illustrates China's grand ambitions in hydropower.

These projects have raised considerable environmental concerns.

Changes in the gravity anomaly caused by the enormous mass of accumulated water.

Severe ecological impacts, including habitat destruction and changes in river morphology.

Over a million people have been displaced as a result of changes in river morphology caused by similar projects.

The Yarlung Tsangpo Project could replicate environmental and social risks on a larger scale.

It presents significant challenges for downstream regions, including ecological disruption and water security issues.

What Are the Concerns for India?

Impact on water flow to India

The proposed dam could significantly affect the flow of water from China to India, a country on the lower coast since most of the water in the Brahmaputra system comes from Tibet. Any change in water flow could disrupt agriculture and water availability in India.

Disruption of silt and biodiversity

Large dams often block the flow of silt which is essential for agriculture and cause changes in river flow adversely affecting local biodiversity. These disruptions could have long-term ecological and agricultural consequences for the region.

Earthquake-prone and fragile ecology

The region is one of the most ecologically fragile and earthquake-prone areas in the world. A large dam in this zone increases the risk of catastrophic events.
- - For example, the 2004 Parechu Lake landslide in Tibet, which later ruptured in 2005, highlights the dangers of water accumulation in unstable areas, despite early coordination to mitigate the damage.

The need for coordination and concerns about cooperation

Effective coordination and real-time information exchange between countries is essential for disaster prevention. However China has shown reluctance to cooperate with lower littoral states such as India.
Similar concerns have been observed in the Mekong River basin where 12 large dams in China have negatively affected nations downstream.

What coordination mechanism do India and China have on transboundary rivers?

Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs)

An umbrella MoU on transboundary rivers was signed in 2013 but is not actively implemented.

The Brahmaputra MoU lapsed in 2023 and is under renewal.

The Sutlej MoU, created after the Parechu incident, remains pending for renewal due to China’s refusal for year-round data sharing.

Limited Data Sharing

Data exchange between India and China has been sporadic.

Data sharing paused during crises like the Doklam standoff in 2017 and Ladakh clash in 2020.

China's reluctance to engage hampers India’s efforts to address water sharing concerns and mitigate risks.

International Water Law

Neither India nor China is a signatory to the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.

Both countries follow core principles of equitable and reasonable utilization of shared water resources.

The principle that upstream countries (China) cannot harm downstream countries (India and Bangladesh) provides a basis for future diplomatic engagement.

What Can India Do?

Enhancing Diplomatic Engagement	India should use bilateral channels to promote transparency and cooperation. Publicly challenging Chinese claims that the project will not harm downstream countries can prevent irreversible decisions.
Domestic Countermeasures	India is planning its own 10 GW hydroelectric project in Arunachal Pradesh's Dibang Valley. Accelerating such projects can reduce the strategic disadvantage posed by China's dam.
International Advocacy	India can push for stricter global norms in transboundary water management. Cooperation with regional authorities and international forums can pressure China to act responsibly.
Strengthening Data Sharing Mechanisms	Expanding the scope and duration of hydrological data sharing agreements with China is crucial for flood forecasting and disaster management.
Building Regional Alliances	India can collaborate with other downstream states like Bangladesh to form a united front against China's unilateral actions.
Investing in Resilience	Developing resilient infrastructure and enhancing early warning systems can mitigate the risks posed by upstream activities.

Conclusion

China’s plans to build the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River have serious implications for India, especially in terms of water security, the environment, and regional cooperation. While India has mechanisms in place for dialogue with China, it must assert its rights more forcefully and demand transparency and cooperation on shared water resources.

If China proceeds with the project without considering India’s concerns, it could lead to long-term geopolitical and environmental challenges. The issue of water security must become a central aspect of India-China relations, requiring honest dialogue, cooperation, and mutual respect.

Source:

INDIAN EXPRESS

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q.The construction of the world’s largest dam on the Tsangpo River raises significant concerns for India. Critically examine the potential environmental, geopolitical and socio-economic implications of this project for India. (250 words)