Weather forecasting in India

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Context:

The government is learnt to be planning a major upgrade of the IMD’s existing capabilities.

Details

Weather

• The condition of the atmosphere at a given place and time with respect to temperature (maximum and minimum), air pressure, humidity, clouds, wind and rainfall. These factors are known as weather elements.
• Specialised observatories also record elements like radiation, ozone atmospheric trace gases.

Weather Forecast :

Prediction with a reasonable amount of certainty about the conditions of weather that would prevail in the coming 12 to 48 hours in a certain area.

Weather forecasting in India

In India, weather-related information is collected and published under the auspices of the Indian Meteorological Department, which is also responsible for weather forecasting.

Indian Meteorological Department

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) was established in 1875, with its headquarters at Calcutta. The IMD headquarters are presently located at New Delhi.

Details about IMD: https://www.iasgyan.in/daily-current-affairs/india-meteorological-department#:~:text=At%20present%20IMD%20is%20under,10%20are%20at%20New%20Delhi.

Weather observations

Meteorological observations are recorded at three levels, viz. surface observatories, upper air observatories and space-based observation platforms.

Surface observatories:

• Surface observatory has instruments for measuring and recording weather elements.
• In India, meteorological observations are normally classified into five categories depending upon their instruments and the number of daily observations taken.

Typical instrumental facility consists of: 

• Maximum and minimum thermometers.
• Anemometer and wind vane.
• Dry and Wet bulb thermometer.
• Rain gauge .

Upper air observatories and Space-based observation platforms:

• The geo-stationary satellites provide space-based observations about weather conditions. For example, The Indian National Satellite (INSAT) provides valuable observations of temperature, cloud cover, wind and associated weather phenomena at the ground level as well in the upper layers of the atmosphere.
• At present, there are two operational meteorological satellites; INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR.

Significance of weather forecasting in India

• Agriculture and food security: 80% of agricultural land depends on monsoon, so advance prediction will facilitate farmers for crop planning.
• About western disturbance rain for north western states for wheat cultivation.
• Mitigate Disasters: India is vulnerable to multiple disaster events like tropical cyclones (eastern and western coastal states), Landslides (Himalayan states), Floods (Ganga, Brahmaputra Basin states), Heat weaves(interior states), Drought (to manage irrigation planning in rain fed states), Ocean weather (Fisher man).
• Mitigate Air Pollution effect on health and transport: Due to continentality,  dense fog, particularly in North India, often leads to delays in flights and trains, with near-zero visibility caused by high particulate matter and smog. Fog can trap pollutants close to the ground, exacerbating health issues, especially for children and the elderly.
• Urban Planning: Flash flood zone mapping for prevent water lodging and proper drainage.

Achievements so far

• IMD has vastly improved its forecasts in recent years by adopting advanced technologies similar to those used by the US, UK, and Japan.
• IMD operates around 800 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), 1,500 Automatic Rain Gauges (ARG), and 37 Doppler Weather Radars (DWR).

Initiatives

• Cyclone prediction: advance prediction of major cyclones like phailin (Eastern coast) and Cyclone Biparjoy (western coast).
• Monsoon prediction: Long range monsoon forecast, prediction of La Nina year
• As part of the Monsoon Mission, a prediction system based on a coupled climate model was made operational in 2017.
• The Meghdoot app is a joint project between the IMD and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) that provides farmers with weather forecasts and agricultural advisories.
• Landslide prediction: Geological Survey of India (GSI) launched the app 'Bhooskhalan' as well as the portal 'Bhusanket'.
• Air quality prediction and monitoring : SAFAR or System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research is an initiative to measure the air quality of metropolitan cities.
• Heat wave early warning: Daily impact based Heat Wave warning Bulletin by IMD.
• Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services launches SAMUDRA app to provide real-time updates and critical alerts on oceanic disasters.

Challenges

• In tropical countries like India, weather variability is inherently higher.
• Climate change increases the uncertainties of weather like frequent extreme weather events and climate forecasts.
• Forecasts often go wrong, particularly during the winter and monsoon seasons, due to a lack of weather monitoring ground stations.
• Establishment of weather stations in hilly topography to real time monitoring.
• Lack of algorithms for satellite data for cloudy conditions, land-surface processes.
• Most of the prediction software currently used by IMD is based on the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, which are not the most modern.

Way forward

• With the government's focus on the Make in India initiative, IMD must turn to Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) for predictions.
• Need a more comprehensive observation network, with inputs from crowdsourcing, social media, the public and a constellation of small satellite sensors.
• Need a modelling framework with much higher resolutions to handle extreme weather events better.
• Extensive research to better understand the physical processes of weather extremes is needed to improve the accuracy of the models.
• Artificial intelligence can bring a paradigm shift in weather forecasting and gives hope that the accuracy of weather forecasts can be improved.

Conclusion

India have one of the best weather and climate services in the world and it should continue to improve the quality of services. Since India is on the right track, let us ensure that we realise the dream of a weather-ready and climate-smart nation by 2047.

More: https://www.iasgyan.in/daily-current-affairs/how-to-prepare-for-extreme-weather-events

Source

https://ncert.nic.in/textbook/pdf/kegy308.pdf

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/india-met-department-upgradation-imd-forecasting-tools-monsoon-season-vintage-meteorol