Revised GDP estimates integrate progressively refined data to enhance accuracy. Q3 FY25 growth rose to 6.2% from Q2’s 5.6%, while FY24 improved from 8.2% to 9.2% and FY23 from 7% to 7.6%. Robust rural demand and government spending buoy overall growth despite subdued industrial performance, signaling a significantly stronger economy.
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The Union Government recently released updated GDP estimates.
GDP estimates are revised for more comprehensive and accurate data, initial estimates depend on preliminary data and assumptions, which are refined with following releases.
For each financial year, India releases five rounds of GDP estimates: First Advance Estimates (FAE), Second Advance Estimates (SAE), Provisional Estimates (PE), First Revised Estimates (FRE), and Final Estimates. These revisions are standard practice globally to enhance data reliability.
Q3 FY25 GDP Growth
India's GDP grew by 6.2% in Q3 (October-December 2024), up from 5.6% in Q2 (July-September 2024). This rebound was driven by rural consumption, government spending, and a surge in exports.
Revised Q2 FY25 Growth: The Q2 growth rate was revised upwards from 5.4% to 5.6%.
Sharp FY24 GDP Revision
The GDP growth for FY24 (April 2023-March 2024) was revised sharply from 8.2% to 9.2%. This is a 1.9 percentage point increase from the First Advance Estimate (7.3%) released in January 2024.
FY23 GDP Revision: The GDP growth for FY23 (April 2022-March 2023) was revised upwards from 7% to 7.6%.
Sectoral Performance
Agriculture: Posted strong growth of 5.6% in Q3 FY25, driven by a robust kharif harvest and improved rabi sowing.
Industry: Growth remained subdued at 4.5% in Q3 FY25, constrained by weak mining (1.4%) and manufacturing (3.5%) performance.
Services: Key driver of growth, with trade, hotels, transport, and communication services rising by 6.7% and public administration growing by 8.8% in Q3 FY25.
Expert Perspectives and Concerns
Many analysts highlight the upward revisions as a sign of a stronger-than-expected economy. Rural demand and government spending are seen as key growth pillars.
India's consumption growth is heavily reliant on a small elite (10% of the population), limiting broad-based economic benefits. Manufacturing capacity utilization remains stuck at 70-75%, limiting private investment.
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