WMO REPORT ON STATE OF CLIMATE
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- Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Average global temperature
- The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average.
- The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend.
- But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically,
- El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.
- There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
- There is 66% chance for one of the next five years temporarily breaching the 1.5 degree Celsius mark.
Annual mean temperature
- The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average.
- The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.
- Arctic warming is disproportionately high.
- Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.
- In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.
- The Paris Agreement sets to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.
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Q) Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, according to a ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ issued by the World Meteorological Organization. Discuss the various factors which can fuel such a surge. (250 words)