This article is part of the UPSC Daily Editorial Analysis, covering The Hindu editorial – " A delimitation red flag — the lessons from J&K, Assam ," published on 20th March, by the best UPSC coaching in Kolkata.

Syllabus: UPSC Polity & Governance in the UPSC syllabus, covering Delimitation, Federalism, Representation and Constitutional Provisions.

Context

The delimitation of constituencies for the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies is set to be carried out based on the first Census after 2026. (Note: Originally the 2021 Census was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent delays by the Central government). This delimitation exercise, based on population data from the latest Census, aims to ensure fair representation in legislative bodies. However, given the demographic shifts since the last delimitation in 1976, several challenges have emerged. Southern states fear a loss of representation due to their success in population control, while concerns about communal redistricting have been raised based on recent experiences in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam.

What is Delimitation?

Delimitation refers to the process of fixing the number of seats & boundaries of territorial constituencies for Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies. It also involves determining the seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) & Scheduled Tribes (STs).

The constitutional basis for delimitation are in Article 82 and Article 170. These articles mandate that the number of seats and their territorial division are to be readjusted after each Census. This process is conducted by the Delimitation Commission which was constituted under an Act of Parliament. The first three delimitations (1952, 1963, 1973) were conducted after the 1951, 1961 and 1971 Censuses without major controversy. However, in 1976, due to concerns about uneven population growth among states, the number of parliamentary seats was frozen until 2001 -- later extended to 2026. Note: This was done so that states which have better population control measures don't get penalized.

Constitutional Basis and Freezing of Seats

The principle of one citizen-one vote-one value is central and core to democratic representation. Historically the number of Lok Sabha seats was adjusted as given below:

• 1951 Census – 494 seats (Population: 36.1 crore)
• 1961 Census – 522 seats (Population: 43.9 crore)
• 1971 Census – 543 seats (Population: 54.8 crore)
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However, the 42nd Constitutional Amendment (1976) froze the number of seats until 2000 to encourage population control measures. This was further extended by the 84th Constitutional Amendment (2001) until 2026. This ensured that States which have lower population growth would not be penalized in terms of political representation.

Why is the Delimitation Exercise Contentious?

The freeze on seats was intended to reward States that successfully implemented population control measures. However, with the impending delimitation based on the first Census after 2026, several concerns arise:

Unequal Population Growth

Over the past five decades, population growth has been uneven across States. Northern States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have seen higher growth rates than Southern States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Two Proposed Approaches

1. Redistribution within 543 seats – This would mean reallocating existing seats among States based on updated population data.
2. Increasing the total seats to 848 – This would proportionally increase seats across all States.

 Both the above approaches suggest that Southern and smaller Northern States (Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and the Northeastern States) may lose political influence. But larger Northern States may gain representation.

 

Federalism Concerns

There are also concerns about federalism and regional representation. If Northern States gain more seats due to higher population growth the Southern States may feel politically marginalized, despite their successful population control policies.

The Case for Increasing Assembly Seats Instead of Parliamentary Seats

Some proposed a solution to address the representation concerns. It is---freeze the number of parliamentary seats but at the same time allow an increase in assembly seats. This ensures that states with rising populations get better local representation while maintaining a balanced parliamentary structure.

• Role of MPs vs. MLAs: MPs focus on national policy-making. MLAs on the other hand serve as direct representatives of the people.
• Better governance at the state level: Increasing assembly seats would allow more localized governance without affecting national decision-making power.
• Precedents in other federal democracies: Countries like the United States have a fixed number of Senate seats, while House seats are adjusted based on population.

However, the proposal mentioned above does not fully address the concern of southern states that they might lose political influence in the national decision-making process.

Possible Solutions to Balance Democracy and Federalism

• Capping Lok Sabha Seats at 543 – This prevents disruption in existing representation while maintaining federal balance.
• Increasing State Assembly Seats – There can be a provision to adjust MLA numbers based on population while keeping Rajya Sabha unchanged can address democratic concerns without disrupting national representation.
• Strengthening Local Governance – Empowering Panchayats and Municipalities with greater financial and administrative autonomy ensures effective grassroots representation.

Another Possible Solution is to Strengthen the Role of Rajya Sabha

To counterbalance the shift in Lok Sabha representation, another idea is to redistribute Rajya Sabha seats to reflect geographic zones instead of population. India is already divided into five zonal councils—North, Central, East, West and South—which could serve as a basis for Rajya Sabha representation.

• Current Zonal Council System: Originally established to resolve inter-state disputes, but remains largely inactive.
• Revitalizing the Inter-State Council: The Inter-State Council, dormant since 2016, could be restructured to provide greater say to states in policymaking.
• Potential Pitfall: Rajya Sabha’s indirect election process could still favor dominant national parties thereby reducing the intended balancing effect in this context.

Case Studies pertaining to Delimitation in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam

Recent delimitations that were done in Jammu & Kashmir (2022) and Assam (2023) have set a concerning precedent for politically motivated redistricting. These experiences provide insight into potential risks for the 2026 exercise.

Jammu & Kashmir: A Communal Redistricting?

• Disproportionate seat allocation: The process gave six additional seats to Jammu, while only one was added to the Kashmir Valley.
• Vote value disparity: A voter in Jammu has 1.2 times the influence of a voter in Kashmir due to constituency size disparities.
• Merger of distinct regions: Poonch and Rajouri, despite geographical and cultural differences, were merged into Anantnag.
• Communal constituency creation: Newly drawn seats like Jasrota, Ramgarh, Vaishno Devi and Padder-Nagseni are all Hindu-majority, while some Muslim-majority constituencies were diluted.

Assam: Erasing Muslim-Majority Seats?

• District mergers before delimitation: Assam’s government merged four districts back into parent districts, effectively reducing 10 Muslim-majority constituencies.
• Shift in demographic advantage: While overall seats remained unchanged, constituencies with Hindu and tribal majorities gained influence.
• Lack of uniform constituency sizes: Like in Jammu & Kashmir where some Hindu-majority constituencies had much smaller populations thereby providing them with greater electoral weight.

Potential Challenges for Delimitation 2026

The biggest concern for the 2026 delimitation is not just population-based seat redistribution but also the risk of communal redistricting. The patterns observed in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam suggest that demographic and political engineering could be a factor in the upcoming exercise.

• North-South Power Shift: Southern states have better development indicators and lower fertility rates but they may see a reduction in seats, affecting their influence.

• Gerrymandering Concerns: Redistricting could be manipulated to favor specific political and communal interests.
• Federal Imbalance: The overall shift in power towards high-population, high-poverty states could result in policies that do not align with the interests of developed states.

The Broader Implications: A Threat to Federalism?

India’s federal structure is already under strain due to economic disparities, policy centralization and political marginalization of opposition-ruled states. The 2026 delimitation could further exacerbate these tensions in multiple ways:

• Demographic Shift in Political Power: The northern state's political dominance could make it harder for southern states to push for policies that align with their developmental needs and goals.
• Communal Polarization: If constituency boundaries are drawn along religious lines it could further deepen societal divisions and create a permanent political disadvantage for certain communities.
• Weakened Regional Autonomy: Since more power is shifting towards centrally-favored states demands for greater decentralization and fiscal autonomy may grow stronger.

International Practices

• United States – The House of Representatives has been capped at 435 seats since 1913, despite a fourfold increase in population. Seats are redistributed after every Census using the method of equal proportion, ensuring minimal disruption.
• European Union (EU) – The European Parliament follows a principle of degressive proportionality, where smaller countries have a higher seat-to-population ratio to ensure balanced representation. For example:
1. Denmark (60 lakh population) – 15 seats (1 seat per 4 lakh people)
2. Germany (8.3 crore population) – 96 seats (1 seat per 8.6 lakh people)

Way Ahead: Need for a Balanced Approach

Since the stakes are high it is essential to ensure that the 2026 delimitation process remains fair, transparent and inclusive. Several measures could be considered:

• Maintaining parliamentary seat distribution while increasing state assembly seats to ensure local representation.
• Reforming Rajya Sabha representation to provide equitable influence to all regions.
• Strengthening independent institutions like the Inter-State Council and Delimitation Commission to prevent partisan influence.
• Ensuring constituency sizes remain uniform across religious and ethnic groups to avoid gerrymandering.
• Encouraging political discourse on federal balance, ensuring that opposition parties raise these issues in national debates.

As India moves towards one of its most consequential delimitation exercises, it must tread carefully to uphold the spirit of democracy, federalism and equal representation.

Conclusion

The delimitation exercise is a complex challenge between democratic representation and federal equilibrium. Population-based adjustments are essential but they must not come at the cost of marginalizing and penalizing States that have controlled population growth quite successfully. A balanced approach, ensuring fair representation without disrupting federal principles, is crucial for maintaining India’s democratic integrity. 

PRACTICE QUESTION Q.Critically analyze the federal and representational challenges of delimitation in India, highlighting concerns of political imbalance and demographic shifts. (250 words)

1. What is delimitation in India and why is it important?

Delimitation is the process of redrawing constituency boundaries for Lok Sabha and State Assemblies based on Census data to ensure fair representation. It prevents demographic imbalances in political representation.

2. Why is the 2026 delimitation exercise controversial?

It may reduce seats for southern states that controlled population growth, shifting political power to high-growth northern states. Concerns over communal redistricting, as seen in J&K and Assam, add to the controversy.

3. How does delimitation impact federalism in India?

A shift in Lok Sabha seats could weaken the political influence of developed states, leading to demands for decentralization and fiscal autonomy. Unequal representation could disrupt India’s federal balance.

4. What are the proposed solutions to balance representation?

Solutions include capping Lok Sabha seats, increasing State Assembly seats, strengthening Rajya Sabha representation and ensuring fair constituency sizes to prevent gerrymandering.

5. How can India ensure a fair delimitation process?

A transparent, independent Delimitation Commission, uniform constituency sizes and reforms in Rajya Sabha and local governance can ensure balanced representation while maintaining federal integrity.