KEEPING A WATCH ON THE GROWING ARC OF VIOLENCE

10th February, 2025

Global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Gaza war have led to economic problems, rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions. Terrorism is also changing, with Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyberterrorism and online radicalization making threats more dangerous. International organizations like the United Nations (UN) and International Court of Justice (ICJ) struggle to stop wars, while regional organizations have limited success. India faces challenges from cross-border terrorism and is strengthening security measures like intelligence gathering and cybersecurity. To ensure peace, countries must work together by sharing intelligence, securing borders and using technology to fight terrorism and resolve conflicts.

Geopolitical conflicts and their global impact

Russia-Ukraine War:

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, continues with no resolution in sight. It has led to economic sanctions, energy crises and global food shortages. NATO’s involvement and Russia’s growing ties with China and Iran have deepened global divisions, impacting international diplomacy and security.

West Asia Conflict: Israel-Gaza War and Regional Tensions

The ongoing Israel-Gaza war has escalated into a broader regional conflict. Armed groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have intensified attacks, leading to instability across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The role of Iran and Western powers has further complicated peace efforts, raising concerns about long-term regional security.

Impact of conflicts on the global economy and supply chains

Wars in Ukraine and West Asia have affected oil prices, trade routes and global markets. The Red Sea shipping crisis, caused by attacks from the Houthis, has disrupted global supply chains, affecting India’s exports and imports. Rising defense expenditures in many nations are diverting funds from developmental projects.

Failure of international institutions in conflict resolution

United Nations and Its Declining Authority

The United Nations (UN), established to maintain global peace, has failed to prevent conflicts. The UN Security Council (UNSC) is often paralyzed due to veto powers held by the P5 nations (USA, Russia, China, UK and France). This has weakened its ability to act decisively in conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza.

Effectiveness of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC)

Recent rulings by the ICJ on the Gaza conflict and past orders regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine highlight the limitations of international law. The ICC, which investigates war crimes, faces challenges as major powers like the US, Russia and China do not recognize its authority.

Role of regional groupings in peacekeeping

Organizations like the European Union (EU), Arab League and African Union (AU) have struggled to mediate conflicts. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS are emerging as alternative platforms for geopolitical discussions, yet their impact on conflict resolution remains limited.

Resurgence of Terrorism: Changing Tactics and Emerging Threats

The evolution of global terrorism

  • Post-1979: Iranian Revolution led to the rise of Hezbollah and Shia militias.
  • 1980s-1990s: The Afghan war and Soviet withdrawal led to the emergence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
  • 2001-2011: The 9/11 attacks resulted in the Global War on Terror; Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011.
  • 2014-2019: The rise and fall of ISIS, which used social media for recruitment and global attacks.
  • 2020-Present: New terror strategies include lone-wolf attacks, cyberterrorism and AI-driven radicalization.

Rise of terrorist networks in different regions

  • Afghanistan: The Taliban’s return to power has provided safe havens for al-Qaeda and ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
  • Middle East: Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias are active in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
  • Africa: Groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab have intensified attacks in Nigeria, Somalia and the Sahel region.
  • South Asia: Pakistan-based groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed continue to pose threats to India.
  • Ongoing Wars in West Asia: The Israel-Gaza war has caused mass destruction and loss of lives. Israel is supported by Western countries, but groups like Hamas and Hezbollah are fighting back. In Yemen, Syria and Iraq, armed groups supported by Iran are also involved. This shows that the war is not just between Israel and Hamas, but is part of a larger conflict in the region.

Terrorism in the West: A Growing Concern

There are increasing fears that terrorism is returning to the U.S. and Europe:

  • In Las Vegas and New Orleans, two attackers with suspected ties to extremist ideologies carried out violent acts.
  • France, Germany and the U.K. have reported more lone-wolf attacks.
  • Many European countries are on high alert, fearing more attacks in the future.

How AI and the internet are helping terrorists

Terror groups are using AI and social media to spread their ideology and recruit members. AI-generated videos, encrypted messaging apps and dark web networks make it easier for terrorists to plan attacks. Cybersecurity experts warn that terrorists might even use hacking techniques to disrupt government systems.

India’s counterterrorism strategy and national security challenges

India’s approach to tackling terrorism

  • Strengthening intelligence agencies like Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Intelligence Bureau (IB) and National Investigation Agency (NIA).
  • Implementing anti-terror laws such as Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and National Investigation Agency Act (NIA Act).
  • Enhancing border security along Pakistan, China and Bangladesh.
  • Cybersecurity measures to counter Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based radicalization and cyberterrorism.

Challenges in India’s counterterrorism efforts

  • Cross-border terrorism from Pakistan and China’s role in shielding terror groups.
  • Radicalization of youth through online extremist propaganda.
  • Use of drones and encrypted communication by terrorist organizations.
  • Balancing security measures with human rights concerns.

What can be done to stop terrorism?

To tackle terrorism, countries must work together:

  • Better intelligence-sharing between nations can help track terrorists.
  • Social media platforms should take stronger action to remove extremist content.
  • Stronger border security is needed to stop terrorists from moving across countries.
  • Addressing root causes like poverty, unemployment and political instability can prevent people from joining terror groups.

Conclusion: The need for global cooperation 

The world is facing a multipolar security crisis, with wars, terrorism and weak international institutions making global peace uncertain. Countries must focus on diplomatic resolutions, intelligence-sharing, technological advancements in counterterrorism and economic stability to ensure long-term security. India-as a rising global power, must actively engage in global security initiatives while strengthening its internal defense mechanisms. 

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q.Global conflicts and evolving terrorism challenge international security. Analyze their impact and assess the effectiveness of global institutions. Also, discuss India’s counterterrorism strategy and the need for global cooperation. (250 words)

FAQs

Q1: How have global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars impacted the world?

A: These conflicts have caused economic instability, rising oil prices, supply chain disruptions and increased geopolitical tensions. They have also intensified regional security concerns and strained international institutions like the UN.

Q2: Why is the UN struggling to prevent wars and resolve conflicts?

A: The UN Security Council (UNSC) is often paralyzed by veto powers of the P5 nations (USA, Russia, China, UK, France), limiting decisive action. Other institutions like the ICJ and ICC lack enforcement power, reducing their impact on conflict resolution.

Q3: How have modern technologies changed terrorism?

A: Terrorists now use Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyberterrorism, encrypted messaging and social media for recruitment, radicalization and planning attacks, making threats more complex and harder to track.

Q4: What are India’s key counterterrorism measures?

A: India has strengthened intelligence agencies (RAW, IB, NIA), border security and enacted strict anti-terror laws like UAPA. It also focuses on cybersecurity to counter AI-based radicalization and drone threats.

Q5: Why is global cooperation necessary to combat terrorism?

A: Terrorism is a transnational threat, requiring intelligence sharing, stronger border controls, social media monitoring and addressing root causes like poverty and radicalization to ensure long-term security.