This article is part of the UPSC Daily Editorial Analysis, covering The Hindu editorial – " The deeper meaning of declining school enrolment," published on 19th February, by the best UPSC coaching in Kolkata.

Syllabus: UPSC General Studies (GS) Paper 2: Governance, Welfare Schemes, Education Policy); GS-I (Society, Demographic Trends); GS-III (Indian Economy, Employment & Labour Market)

Context

According to the latest Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data school enrolment has fallen by 15.5 million (6%) since 2018-19. The report has recorded a decline of over 1 crore students in 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Trends in School Enrolment (2014-15 to 2023-24):

Between 2014-15 and 2023-24, total school enrolment fell by 24.51 million (9.45%):

• Elementary-level enrolment: Declined by 18.7 million (13.45%) despite the Right to Education (RTE) Act, 2009, mandating free and compulsory education.
• Secondary-level enrolment: Dropped by 1.43 million (3.75%).
• Senior secondary-level enrolment: Increased by 3.63 million (15.46%), indicating that the decline is recent and concentrated in lower levels of schooling.

Trends in School Enrolment in Government vs Private Schools

The sharpest decline in school enrolment is seen in government and government-aided schools, which serve marginalized sections of society.

• Government schools: Enrolment fell by 19.89 million (13.8%).
• Government-aided schools: Recorded a 4.95 million (16.41%) drop.
• Private unaided schools: A marginal increase of 1.61 million (2.03%), mainly at the senior secondary level (15.55%), while elementary and secondary-level enrolment remained stagnant.

State-Wise Enrolment Decline

The most significant enrolment drops in 2023-24 compared to 2018-19 were recorded in:

• Bihar: 35.65 lakh fewer students
• Uttar Pradesh: 28.26 lakh fewer students
• Maharashtra: 18.55 lakh fewer students

However, states like Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir and Telangana reported an increase in enrolment.

Is improved data collection behind the decline in school enrolment?

The government attributes this decline to improved data collection methods. The UDISE+ system now mandates student-specific details, eliminating duplicate entries where students were enrolled in both government and private schools. Officials argue that Aadhaar-linked verification has removed inaccuracies, making the enrolment count more reliable.

While officials argue that improved data accuracy explains the drop, the decline also aligns with India’s shrinking school-age population. 

India's Demographic Shift Leading to an Ageing Population According to the United Nations Population Fund, India is experiencing a demographic shift from a young population to an ageing population. This shift is due to declining birth rates, rising life expectancy and a shrinking proportion of children. By 2050, India's senior population is expected to rise to 319 million, a significant increase from 139 million in 2021. The United Nations Decade of Healthy Ageing (2021-2030) recognises the far-reaching impact of ageing to encompass not just health systems but labour and financial markets, social protection and education.

How is the decline in school enrolment linked to India’s demographic shift?

The decline in enrolment since 2014-15 is not a temporary trend. The drop in school enrolment from 2014-15 to 2023-24, aligns with changes in the school-age population (6-17 years). The sharp drop at the elementary level points to a larger demographic shift with long-term social and economic impacts.

• The school-age population (6-17 years) has declined by 17.30 million (5.78%) over the past decade.
• The 6-13 years (elementary level) age group shrank by 18.7 million (9.12%).
• The 14-15 years (secondary level) age group saw a 2.17 million (4.35%) decline.
• The number of schools decreased by 79,109 (5.1%), from 1.55 million in 2017-18 to 1.47 million in 2023-24.

These trends also align with India's declining fertility rate. India’s fertility rate dropped to 2.01 in 2022, below the replacement level of 2.10. This has led to a smaller school-age population, causing 60.36% of the enrolment decline.

What are the economic and social implications of India's population shift?

India is now experiencing a shift in its population structure. There are many economic and social implications of India's population shift:

• The youth bulge is shrinking, meaning the working-age population will soon shrink.
• Elementary-level enrolment is already declining and this will soon impact secondary and higher education.
• The country may face a labour force shortage similar to developed nations but without the economic prosperity to sustain an ageing population.

All these raise concerns about the long-term impact on higher education, workforce availability and economic growth, making labour force planning and skill development critical policy priorities.

Conclusion

The drop in school enrolment is due to a demographic shift, not just data changes. If the 2021 Census confirms this trend, India is nearing the end of its demographic dividend. Urgent action is needed in labour planning, skill development and economic reforms to avoid ageing before becoming prosperous. 

Trivia: All About UDISE+ Aspect Details What is UDISE+? Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) is a data aggregation platform under the Ministry of Education that compiles nationwide school education data. Evolution Upgraded version of Unified District Information System for Education (UDISE), introduced in 2018-19 by the Department of School Education & Literacy. Aim Improve efficiency, accuracy and accessibility of education data, replacing manual data collection. UDISE+ 2023-24 Update Collected student-wise data with Aadhaar numbers (voluntary); over 19.7 crore students submitted Aadhaar. Significance Shifts from aggregated school data to individual student records.   Provides a more accurate education system overview. Enhances monitoring of student progression and retention. Streamlines government scheme beneficiaries, reducing duplication and ensuring equitable resource allocation.

 

PRACTICE QUESTION Q.The decline in school enrolment in India reflects a deeper demographic transition. Discuss its long-term socio-economic implications. (250 words)

MUST READ ARTICLES:

INDIA AGEING REPORT

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND CHANGE IN WOMEN’S LIVES

FAQs

What does the U-DISE+ data reveal about school enrolment trends?

School enrolment fell by 24.51 million (9.45%) from 2014-15 to 2023-24, mainly at the elementary level. Government schools saw the sharpest decline, while private schools recorded a marginal rise at the senior secondary level.

How is India's demographic shift affecting school enrolment?

A shrinking school-age population due to a declining fertility rate (2.01 in 2022) caused 60.36% of the enrolment drop, mainly at the elementary level.

Which states saw the highest and lowest enrolment declines?

Bihar (35.65 lakh), UP (28.26 lakh), Maharashtra (18.55 lakh) had the highest decline, while AP, Delhi, J&K and Telangana saw an increase.

What are the economic and social impacts of this trend?

A shrinking youth population may lead to a labour shortage, affecting higher education, workforce supply and economic growth. Skill development and labour planning are crucial.