THE RED FLAG AS CHINA’S EXPANSIONIST STRATEGY ROLLS ON

17th January, 2025

China’s recent actions along the China-India border, including dam construction and territorial claims, pose threats to India's sovereignty and regional stability. China's control over transboundary rivers exacerbates environmental and agricultural risks, impacting countries like India and Bangladesh. To counter these challenges, India must lead regional diplomatic efforts and strengthen multilateral coordination to safeguard its interests.

India-China Border Aggression

Recent incidents of Chinese aggression along the China-India border underscore growing vulnerabilities for India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Notable actions include:

  • Announcement of a dam construction on the Yarlung Zangbo river (Brahmaputra).
  • Creation of two new counties in north-eastern Ladakh.

India has condemned these actions, deeming them illegal and a direct threat to its sovereignty. The proposed hydropower project raises concerns about potential ecological and strategic vulnerabilities, particularly in downstream regions.

Transboundary Water Disputes

China’s unilateral control over transboundary rivers has impacted multiple South Asian countries:

  • Brahmaputra and Indus river systems face threats of reduced water flow and silt deposition.
  • Potential consequences include agricultural losses, biodiversity threats and flood risks in downstream countries like India and Bangladesh.

In response, India is investing in hydropower projects, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh, to mitigate strategic vulnerabilities.

Cartographic Aggression and Territorial Disputes

China continues its strategy of cartographic aggression, evident in:

  • Renaming disputed territories in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Creating settlements in contested areas.
  • Standardising territorial claims on official maps.

Despite these tactics, international law, including rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), does not validate territorial claims based solely on maps. However, China’s physical presence in disputed territories complicates India’s position.

The South Asian Response

China’s economic engagements coexist with territorial and water-related disputes across South Asia. Unlike Southeast Asia, South Asian countries lack collective mechanisms like the Mekong River Commission (MRC).

India, as a regional power, must lead efforts to:

  • Establish regional forums and multilateral institutions.
  • Strengthen diplomatic coordination to counter China’s growing influence.

A unified regional strategy is essential to safeguard India’s sovereignty and ensure stability in South Asia amidst China’s assertive policies.

VALUE ADDITION

Historical Roots of India-China Relations

India-China relations date back over 2,000 years, rooted in cultural and economic exchanges. The Silk Road facilitated trade and the spread of Buddhism from India to East Asia, shaping early ties. Until the pre-1950s, interactions were limited to pilgrimage and minor trade.

Post-Independence Developments

A new phase began after India’s independence in 1947 and China’s Communist Revolution in 1949, establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC). Diplomatic relations were formalized in 1950, with India recognizing the PRC as the legitimate government.

Role of Tibet and Border Disputes

Tibet acted as a buffer until China's 1950 invasion and occupation, leading to a shared border. The annexation raised tensions, exacerbated by the construction of a highway through Aksai Chin in the 1950s, an area claimed by India.

The Panchsheel Agreement

In 1954, India and China signed the Panchsheel Agreement, emphasizing:

  • Mutual respect for sovereignty
  • Non-aggression
  • Non-interference
  • Equality and mutual benefit
  • Peaceful coexistence

Despite this, tensions escalated as China’s territorial claims grew.

The Sino-Indian War and Forward Policy

India’s Forward Policy, aimed at asserting territorial control, triggered further clashes, culminating in the Sino-Indian War of 1962. Disputes over Aksai Chin and differing border perceptions led to recurring skirmishes, including the Chola incident (1967) and 2020 clashes.

Modern Relations and Challenges

Post-1980s, efforts to rebuild ties led to China becoming India’s largest trading partner by 2008. Both countries expanded economic and strategic cooperation. However, relations remain strained due to border stand-offs along the Line of Actual Control, impacting diplomatic ties.

Significance of the Bilateral Relationship

As the world’s most populous nations and fastest-growing economies, India and China hold significant geopolitical and economic influence. Their relationship is crucial but continues to face hurdles in achieving stability and mutual trust.

Root Causes of the Border Dispute between India and China

The core issue lies in the undefined and disputed 3,440 km (2,100-mile) border, which spans four Indian states — Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh — and the Union Territory of Ladakh. The dispute is divided into three sectors: Western, Middle and Eastern, each with unique complexities.

Western Sector: Aksai Chin Dispute

  • India shares a 2,152 km border in this sector, primarily between Ladakh and China’s Xinjiang province.
  • The Aksai Chin region is the main point of contention. India claims it as part of the erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir, while China views it as part of Xinjiang.

Historical Roots

  • The dispute arises from conflicting interpretations of two proposed borders during British rule:
      • Johnson’s Line (1865): Places Aksai Chin in Ladakh under Indian control.
      • McDonald Line (1893): Places Aksai Chin in Chinese territory.
  • India follows the Johnson Line, while China adheres to the McDonald Line. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) reflects China's claim line and remains a flashpoint.
  • The area includes strategic locations such as Pangong Tso Lake, Galwan Valley and Daulat Beg Oldi.

Middle Sector: Lesser Disagreements

  • Spanning 625 km, this sector covers the border areas of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
  • While disputes exist, this sector has seen fewer confrontations compared to others.

Eastern Sector: McMahon Line Dispute

  • India shares a 1,140 km boundary in this sector, primarily with Arunachal Pradesh.
  • The McMahon Line, proposed during the 1914 Simla Accord, forms the border here.
  • China rejects the McMahon Line, claiming most of Arunachal Pradesh, including Tawang, as part of Southern Tibet.

Specific Disputed Areas along the LAC

 

In Ladakh

  • Pangong Tso Lake, Galwan Valley, Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) and Hot Springs-Gogra area.
  • Critical points include Demchok, Chushul and Spanggur Gap, which are vital for military and communication links.

 

In Himachal Pradesh

  • Kaurik and Shipki La, an ancient trade route.

In Uttarakhand

  • Pulam Sumda and Barahoti Plains.

In Sikkim

  • North Sikkim, Chumbi Valley and the Doklam region, a tri-junction with Bhutan.

In Arunachal Pradesh

  • Areas like Namkha Chu, Sumdorong Chu and Fish Tail 1 & 2 remain highly contested.

The Sino-Indian War of 1962

  • On October 20, 1962, China’s PLA launched an invasion across the LAC, capturing key areas like Tawang and advancing into the North-East Frontier Agency (NEFA).
  • India faced a severe setback, with 3,000 soldiers taken as prisoners of war.
  • The conflict ended with China unilaterally declaring a ceasefire and withdrawing troops to their claim line.

Lessons Learned

The war highlighted the need for:

  • Improved military preparedness.
  • Robust political and strategic decision-making.
  • Enhanced infrastructure in border areas to counter future threats.

The 1962 conflict marked the beginning of a protracted border tension that persists, compounded by recurring skirmishes and diplomatic challenges.

Post Sino-Indian War Scenario and the Evolution of Border Tensions

The 1962 War marked a significant moment in Sino-Indian relations, leaving a legacy of unresolved disputes and military challenges. China's salami-slicing techniques, coupled with its post-war infrastructure developments, have continued to complicate border dynamics. However, subsequent decades have seen India respond assertively to Chinese provocations, showcasing resilience and military preparedness.

Nathu La Conflict (1967)

The Nathu La conflict was a turning point where India decisively countered Chinese aggression. After repeated infiltrations into the Nathu La region in Sikkim, the Indian Army laid a wire along the perceived border. This act led to clashes, culminating in a heavy artillery exchange. The conflict lasted from September 6 to September 15, 1967, resulting in significant Chinese casualties (approximately 400 soldiers) and bolstering India's morale after the 1962 debacle.

Cho La Conflict (1967)

Following the Nathu La incident, Chinese troops intruded into the Cho La Pass, a critical link between Sikkim and Tibet. Hostilities escalated on October 1, 1967, resulting in hand-to-hand combat and eventual military skirmishes. Despite the loss of 88 Indian soldiers, India successfully repelled Chinese forces, marking a second military victory that year.

1987 Standoff in Arunachal Pradesh

China’s objections to India granting statehood to Arunachal Pradesh in 1986 reignited tensions. In Sumdorong Chu Valley, Chinese troops built infrastructure, prompting India to launch Operation Falcon, which resulted in an extended standoff. This period saw Indian and Chinese forces positioned eyeball-to-eyeball until China retreated. The standoff underscored India's enhanced military capability and determination to protect its sovereignty.

1993 Peace Agreement

The 1993 Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control was a diplomatic milestone following the 1987 standoff. It formalized mechanisms for de-escalation and marked the beginning of structured border negotiations. While significant, it did not resolve the fundamental territorial disputes.

Legacy of Resilience

India's strategic victories in 1967 and 1987 and subsequent diplomatic engagements reflect its evolving approach to China's persistent challenges. These events highlight India's resolve to safeguard its borders and emphasize the necessity of robust military preparedness and sustained diplomatic efforts in countering China's expansionist strategies.

Pact of 1993

The 1993 Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) marked a significant diplomatic effort between India and China. It formalized both nations' acceptance of the LAC's definition across the Western, Middle and Eastern sectors. Provisions included:

  • Ceilings on troops and weapons in mutually agreed zones.
  • Prohibitions on conducting military exercises exceeding 15,000 troops.
  • Mutual exchange of military force data.

This pact aimed to reduce border tensions and promote stability.

Breach of the 1993 Pact

Despite the agreements, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has repeatedly violated the pact. Key incidents include:

Depsang (2013)

  • PLA established permanent camps at Rakhi Nula in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector, contested by both nations.
  • After three weeks of negotiations, PLA retreated, with India dismantling some of its structures in exchange.

Chumar (2014)

  • Triggered by a Chinese highway project encroaching Indian territory.
  • Resolved when China halted construction and India dismantled a watchtower monitoring Chinese activities.

Doklam (2017)

  • A 73-day standoff in Bhutan's Doklam region.
  • China sought to extend its road network, threatening the Siliguri Corridor, vital for connecting India's northeastern states.
  • India intervened militarily on Bhutan’s request, forcing a stalemate resolved through mutual de-escalation.

Galwan Valley Skirmish (2020)

The Galwan clash marked the end of decades of peace along the LAC.

Genesis

Tensions escalated due to India's infrastructure projects like the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road, critical for troop movement to Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO).

Strategic Importance of Galwan Valley

  • Provides access to Aksai Chin and overlooks the vital Tibet-Xinjiang highway.
  • Control of the valley secures India's strategic link to DBO, the world’s highest airbase.

Outcome

  • 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives, marking the first fatalities along the LAC since 1975.
  • The incident underscored the fragility of India-China relations and escalated military buildup in the region.

India’s strategy now emphasizes enhanced border infrastructure, exemplified by the 255-km Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road, which drastically reduces travel time and improves troop mobility near the LAC.

India-China Standoff (2020-24) Timeline

  • June 2020: Galwan Valley Clash – 20 Indian and 4 Chinese fatalities.
  • January 2021: Sikkim Skirmish – Clashes at Naku La pass, injuries on both sides.
  • September 2021: Shots Fired – Alleged violations near Pangong Lake.
  • December 2022: Tawang Clash – Minor injuries in Tawang sector.

China’s Insecurity Over the Border Dispute

The region west of Daulat Beg Oldi includes Gilgit-Baltistan, part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China fears that India’s strategic leverage in the area could disrupt the CPEC and jeopardize the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), posing risks to China's socio-economic and political stability.
Additionally, India’s infrastructure development along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and statements claiming Aksai Chin as part of Indian territory have heightened China's geopolitical insecurities.

India-China Disengagement Efforts

India and China have engaged in military and diplomatic talks to reduce tensions. The Five-Point Agreement formulated in recent discussions highlights the following things:

  • Guidance from leaders' consensus on border issues.
  • Recognition that the current situation is not beneficial for either side.
  • Adherence to existing agreements on boundary affairs.
  • Continued dialogue through the Special Representative Mechanism.
  • Development of confidence-building measures (CBMs) for maintaining peace.
    However, the agreement does not explicitly mention the restoration of status quo ante, leaving uncertainties unresolved.

Past Dispute Resolution Mechanisms

Several bilateral agreements have sought to address border disputes:

  • 1914 Shimla Agreement: Proposed the McMahon Line, later rejected by China.
  • 1954 Panchsheel Agreement: Aimed to respect sovereignty and boundaries.
  • 1993 and 1996 Agreements: Focused on peace and CBMs along the LAC.
  • 2013 Border Defense Cooperation Agreement: Enhanced coordination in border areas.

Border Meeting Points for Dialogue

Five Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) points facilitate military-level talks:

  • Bum La and Kibithu in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Daulat Beg Oldi and Chushul in Ladakh.
  • Nathu La in Sikkim.

Proposed Solutions to Border Disputes

Package Deal

China proposed a status quo recognition: its control over Aksai Chin and India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh. This offer was rejected by India, citing potential further aggression by Beijing.

LAC Plus Solution

This involved recognizing the LAC status quo with additional concessions from China in the west. However, Beijing hardened its stance post-1985, focusing on areas like Tawang, making the solution infeasible for India.

Conclusion

The border dispute remains unresolved due to strategic and political complexities. Arun Shourie aptly noted that there is a need for caution emphasizing that agreements are valuable only if they are enforceable and violations incur significant costs. India must strengthen its border infrastructure and enhance military readiness while maintaining robust diplomatic engagements to secure long-term stability.