In recent times, there has been growing assertiveness of China specially under President Xi Jinping. And this is a complex and evolving challenge for India. As India tries to navigate this shifting terrain it must rethink its strategic assumptions and then prepare for long-term friction.
Earlier, under Deng Xiaoping China followed a practical and cautious approach. But under Xi Jinping, China takes inspiration from its imperial past. It uses the idea of a “century of humiliation” to justify its actions and wants to bring back its old glory. China sees itself as a great civilization that must reclaim its place in the world. This belief makes China act more boldly and unilaterally, especially in nearby regions where India is an important player.
China is backing this approach with real power. It is modernizing its military, investing in technology and using its economic strength. For India, this is more than just a dispute between two countries. It is a larger civilizational challenge, shaped by unequal power, different views and uneven levels of preparation.
The LAC clashes at Depsang (2013), Demchok (2014), Doklam (2017) and especially Galwan (2020) show a clear pattern of rising tensions and not random incidents. China has kept troops and weapons permanently in eastern Ladakh, showing that it wants to change the current situation.
Although India and China have pulled back in some areas, these steps are small and limited. At the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, both countries discussed a new Border Patrolling Agreement. Some saw it as a step forward. But the agreement was vague and had no strong promises, so it didn’t build real trust. China still talks about a “harmonious dance between the Dragon and the Elephant,” but this idea doesn’t match what is happening on the ground.
In early 2025, Prime Minister Modi said that things had started to return to normal after the Kazan talks. But we need to look at the facts before sharing that hope. The People’s Liberation Army is still building infrastructure, setting up surveillance systems and expanding road networks—showing that it is preparing for a long-term conflict.
At the same time, the global order is breaking down. The old system based on rules and peace is giving way to one driven by power, where economic ties no longer prevent conflict. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is not cut off from the world. It is deeply connected to global supply chains and uses its industrial and digital power to gain influence. This makes India’s strategic planning even more complex.
China is increasing its military spending and improving its technology, which is widening the gap between its capabilities and India’s. In 2025, China raised its defence budget by 7.2%—almost three times more than India’s. According to SIPRI, China has added over 100 nuclear warheads and is making progress in hypersonic weapons, space technology and AI-powered warfare.
More importantly, China’s military strategy combines physical attacks with mind-based tactics. It uses tools like:
• Artificial Intelligence,
• Quantum computing,
• Cyber power,
• Automated battlefield systems,
India has made some key moves like promoting local defence production and reforming top defence structures. But these efforts are still too slow and too small. India cannot close this tech gap with diplomacy alone. So, it needs steady investment and bold changes in its defence institutions.
China’s challenge goes beyond the Himalayas. It is expanding its influence in South Asia through infrastructure projects, economic power and political ties. One clear example is Bangladesh. The recent change in leadership and Chief Adviser Mohammed Yunus’s visit to Beijing in March 2025 show that alliances may be shifting.
India is building strong partnerships with the U.S., Japan and Europe, which are helpful. But these global ties cannot replace India’s leadership in South Asia. If India doesn’t act with a clear and confident strategy in the region, it could lose ground in Nepal, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Myanmar—where China is steadily gaining influence.
While most focus remains on the Indo-Pacific, Africa is becoming an important battleground in the India-China rivalry—especially in energy security and nuclear diplomacy. China is actively forming civil nuclear partnerships across Africa, securing uranium and expanding its global influence.
India has a well-developed nuclear program, but it hasn’t matched China’s scale or strategic drive in Africa. As India moves away from fossil fuels to meet its climate goals, this energy gap could turn into a serious long-term weakness. India needs a clear African policy that brings together trade, technology and diplomacy.
India’s external situation could change if Donald Trump returns to the White House. His unpredictable and deal-based foreign policy might affect India-U.S. defence ties and trade relations. Although India and the U.S. share strong strategic interests right now, India should not assume this will always stay the same.
India must plan for all possibilities. It should invest in strategic autonomy, strengthen its own deterrence and avoid depending too much on any one partner. In today’s shifting, multipolar world, relying on alliances for security is a risky idea.
India must deal with China through strategic realism, not wishful diplomacy. China’s leaders follow a long-term civilizational vision that won’t change just because of friendly talk or short breaks in tension. What really matters is India’s strength—military, economic and technological.
To respond well, India must:
• Quickly modernise its armed forces,
• Invest more in AI, cyber, space and clean energy,
• Strengthen its role in South Asia and Africa,
• Keep global partnerships while staying strategically independent,
• Build clear deterrence and stay fully prepared,
India should not aim for direct confrontation with China. But it must be ready. Only a strong India can negotiate with confidence and ensure that diplomacy stands on power—not hope.
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PRACTICE QUESTION Q. India’s China challenge is not merely territorial but civilizational. Elucidate. |
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