A disengagement deal better than expected

15th February, 2021 International Relations

Context:

The year 2021 has begun on an optimistic note for reduction of military tensions between India and China.
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh delivered a carefully worded statement in Parliament about the breakthrough which envisages a pullback by both sides in “a phased, coordinated and verified manner”.
The headway in the impasse, achieved after lengthy talks between the two sides, surprised the doubting Thomases who questioned India’s will and capacity for a military counterpoise.
It also caught off guard those who scoff at the notion of a peaceful resolution of territorial differences in keeping with the longer-term interests of both Asian giants.

Background:

Relations between India and China suffered a dramatic setback following the violation by China of the bilateral agreements and protocols, which ruptured peace and tranquility.
The bloody incident at Galwan on June 15, 2020, the first involving casualties since 1975, brought about the collapse of the prevailing consensus that bilateral ties could develop in parallel with efforts to resolve the boundary question and the maintenance of peace and tranquility.
India has consistently highlighted the view that peace is a fundamental prerequisite for the normal conduct of relations.
The stand-off at the Pangong Lake was but one of several in Eastern Ladakh, but undoubtedly among the most significant.
After China took steps to alter the ground situation between Fingers 4 and 8, the Indian Army had carried out daring manoeuvres to take up advantageous positions along the Kailash range on the southern bank, thereby dominating the key Chinese garrison at Moldo across the Spanggur Gap.

Message of endurance:

Having acquired powerful leverage, Indian troops dug in for the long haul and mirrored the PLA’s deployments.
The message was unambiguous. India was not going to cave in and stood ready to impose a harsh penalty if China engaged in any act of adventurism.
The endurance of the Indian Army through the harsh winter months has been extraordinary.
China appears to have realised that a prolonged stand-off, hardly a part of its original calculus and of little avail militarily or politically, was permanently impairing bilateral relations.
The uncertainty associated with the law of unintended consequences, the high reputational costs to itself, and the forward momentum in India-U.S. relations and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (India, the U.S., Japan and Australia), better known as the Quad, may also have proved to be factors for China.

Disengagement deal:

The Chinese have agreed to pull back forward deployments to their permanent base at Sirijap, east of Finger 8, and to dismantle all infrastructure created after April 2020.
India’s tough negotiators, both diplomatic and military, have ensured that our troops retain their presence at the permanent Indian post at Finger 3 even though China had earlier demanded that India fall back further.
All the Chinese posts atop the high spurs on the northern bank will also be dismantled, including those that overlooked the Dhan Singh Thapa Post.
India will also fall back from its recently held positions along the Kailash range to earlier positions.

Faith in forces, negotiators:

The government of Prime Minister Modi has amply demonstrated its willingness to take tough calls on matters pertaining to sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It has demonstrated boldness in the face of a major military challenge.
It has shown equal courage in grasping the nettle of peace. More importantly, the government has reposed full faith in its armed forces and negotiators.

Way Forward:

Over the next two to three weeks, both sides should be given a chance to implement the agreement.
The temporary moratorium on military activities by both sides along the north bank, including on patrolling up to the traditional points, will improve the situation.
That patrolling will be resumed only consequent to an agreement being reached in future diplomatic and military talks is also a step forward.
Naturally, the pullback will prove to be a complex exercise involving meticulous planning of intricate details and scheduled withdrawals that must factor in the local terrain, the disposition of troops and a vast array of armaments.

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