Background:

• Myanmar’s powerful military chief Min Aung Hlaing had raised doubts about last year’s election results even before the polls were held.
• Myanmar’s Union Election Commission dismissed the allegations and re-endorsed the results.
• Hours before the new Parliament was to convene, the Generals moved into action. They detained State Counsellor Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other top leaders of the NLD. They declared a state of emergency for a year, and took power in their hands.
• In 2008, the military had written a new Constitution that made sure the Generals’ interests would be protected even if there is a transition.
• Than Shwe, who had been ruling the country since 1992, shook up the power structure, promoted young soldiers who were loyal to him and conducted elections under the new Constitution.
• The NLD, which had not recognised the Constitution, boycotted the 2010 election, which the USDP won.
• In the next five years, the Army loosened its grip on the government and society. Political prisoners, including Ms. Suu Kyi, were released.
• S. President Barack Obama visited Myanmar in 2012, signalling a thaw in relations between Myanmar and the U.S. Ms. Suu Kyi’s party also changed its earlier position and accepted the Army-written Constitution.
• The NLD won the 2015 election, the country’s first free and fair election participated by multiple parties, and formed the government, raising hopes that the country is on its way to full transition to democracy.

Flaws in the constitution:

• According to the Constitution, the President must have military experience and the President himself, his spouse or children “shall not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country”.
• Suu Kyi, whose two sons are British citizens, cannot become President.
• The Constitution also mandates that the Defence and Interior Ministries would be controlled by the military.
• Also, 25% of the total seats in Parliament (166 out of the 664-member house) are reserved for the military, giving it a veto over any move to change the Constitution.
• So even when the Army allowed power to be transferred to an elected government, it made sure that it would continue to drive defence and internal security policies, and that the USDP, its political vehicle, has an edge over other parties in elections with the reserved seats in Parliament. But the Generals wanted more.

What does the Army want?

• The 2015 and 2020 election results showed the growing popularity of Ms. Suu Kyi and the unpopularity of the military.
• The 2020 elections were held after the Army launched a brutal crackdown on Rohingya in Rakhine State in the name of fighting terrorism, which forced over 700,000 Rohingya Muslims to flee Myanmar to neighbouring countries, mainly Bangladesh.
• The Army was also projecting Commander in Chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing as a tough soldier dedicated to the security of the country.
• The Generals may have sensed that even the limited democratic experiment was gradually threatening the military’s entrenched interests with Suu Kyi remaining immensely popular.

What’s next?

• The Army says it has declared an emergency as the NLD government failed to act on its complaints on voter fraud. It has promised elections, without offering any time frame. But the NLD has called for protests against the coup.
• The U.S., which under President Obama helped the transition, has reacted harshly. India has expressed “deep concern”. But if China’s response is any indication, the Generals won’t face any heat from Beijing.
• This means, they could circumvent pressure from the U.S., even economic sanctions, by moving closer to China, which is already making huge investments in Myanmar.
• But Suu Kyi’s popularity and an energised NLD that was in power for five years would be an impediment for them. And their own unpopularity, a burden.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/explainer-why-did-the-myanmar-military-stage-a-coup/article33732207.ece

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