KHERSON
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Context: Russian-installed authorities of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson have ordered all residents to evacuate immediately.
Details:
- Ukrainian forces pressing an offensive in the south have zeroed in on Kherson, a provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion.
- Russia said its forces had prevented an attempt by Ukraine to break through its line of control in Kherson.
- The possible fall of the city would deal another humiliation to Moscow after a string of battlefield defeats and other setbacks, further cornering Russian President Vladimir Putin and setting the stage for a potential escalation of the nearly 8-month-old war.
About the province:
- Kherson, which had a prewar population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces.
- The city and surrounding areas fell into Moscow’s hands in the opening days of the conflict as Russian troops quickly pushed their attack north from Crimea — the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014.
- Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine because of its location on the Dnieper River, near the mouth of the Black Sea, and its role as a major industrial center.
- Kherson also sits at a point where Ukraine can cut off fresh water from the Dnieper to Crimea. Kyiv blocked those vital supplies after the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation, and Putin mentioned the need to restore them as one reason behind his decision to invade.
Implications:
- A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the Dnieper’s west bank would shatter Russian hopes to press an offensive west to Mykolaiv and Odesa to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.
- Such a move would deal a devastating blow to its economy.
- It would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova, home to a major Russian military base.
- For Ukraine, capturing Kherson would set the stage for reclaiming the Russia-held part of the Zaporizhzhia region and other areas in the south, and eventually pushing back into Crimea.
- Reclaiming control of Kherson would also mean Kyiv could again cut off water to Crimea.
- Putin will face reputational losses not only inside the country, but also in the eyes of China, and that could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin.
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