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Context: Ukraine and Russia reached a tentative peace plan to end the war.

Details:

• The deal included a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops if Kyiv renounced its ambitions for a membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and accepted limits on its armed forces.
• The International Court of Justice in the Hague ordered Russia to suspend its military operations in the east European nation.
• In an interim judgment, the United Nations tribunal ruled that Ukraine “has a plausible right not to be subjected to military operations by the Russian Federation for the purpose of preventing and punishing an alleged genocide.”

Peace package general principles:

• The essence of any deal would presumably be that Ukraine forgo its aspirations to join NATO Ukrainian governments and NATO should formalize that commitment.
• Russia should agree to a ceasefire as well as withdrawal of its forces from Ukrainian territory.
• All parties should formally commit to uphold and promote the security of a neutral Ukraine.
• NATO and the European Union should convey the message that if Russia again attacked, all economic sanctions against Russia and military assistance to Ukraine would snap back on.

Additional ideas that might be considered:

Territory:

• It is inevitable, that Russia will insist on holding onto the Crimean peninsula, given Crimea’s role in Russian history and its importance for the Russian Navy.
• However, West are not obliged to recognize this annexation dating back to 2014.
• Ukraine should be allowed to keep the issue alive in the future with Moscow, by proposing dual citizenship and guaranteed access within this choice real estate.
• Donbas regions of eastern Ukraine should be returned to Ukraine, given the violent Russian aggression that has since 2014 victimized this region—Ukrainian President can modify borders in that region.

U.N. peacekeepers

• To reduce the odds of renewed fighting, a N. monitoring mission (with troops from outside the Russia and NATO regions) could be deployed along whatever future borders are agreed upon.
• The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe should deploy monitors as well.

U.N. presence:

• As most U.N. agencies are home-based in New York, Italy, Switzerland, and Austria.
• It would be natural that some technical U.N. agencies (not security organizations per se) be moved to Ukraine in a demonstration of the confidence and commitment of the international community to Ukraine’s sovereignty and as a symbolic recognition of its enduring neutrality.

Rebuilding Ukraine

• The international community need to help Ukraine rebuild after the war.
• Ideally, Russia should make at least a token contribution to this effort itself, as one of the key members of the U.N. and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Its financial contribution should not be couched as reparations.

Ukraine’s future military and political system

• Some Russians are insisting on a demilitarized Ukraine as part of any deal, as well as the end of the Zelensky government.
• The latter demand would be an unconscionable infringement on Ukraine’s sovereignty. so any Russian demand to demilitarize Ukraine demonstrates bad faith.
• Ukraine’s future military forces should resemble those of Finland or Switzerland or Sweden—with a modest active-duty force and a large reserve capability, primarily of infantry, that can resist any attack or attempt at occupation.

Military aid

• The U.S. should commit as part of any deal to limit own military aid to Ukraine to the scale and character that preceded the war—several hundred million dollars a year on average.

Finland and Sweden

• These two countries have long been proud of their neutrality, but Putin’s behavior has made them reconsider fundamentally whether they wish to join NATO, and a majority in each country now support the idea.

Sanctions

• Most sanctions imposed recently on Russia would be relaxed, then lifted, under this deal.
• Putin will have to accept that many western businesses will not choose to return to Russia for years to come, and western governments cannot force them to return.
• With a deal, Russia will be able to resume most energy trade and most access to the international financial system.
• China and the U.S., can even collaborate on how to pursue and support this kind of peace process.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/yes-a-ukraine-peace-plan-is-possible/article65287332.ece