Context:

• US combat troops prepare to leave Afghanistan.
• US military has left Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan after nearly 20 years.
• The facility was the epicenter of the war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaida perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America.
• The exit is part of President Joe Biden’s plan to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attack on the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

 

Why did the U.S. invade Afghanistan?

• After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, U.S. President George W. Bush declared war on Afghanistan, which was then ruled by the Taliban.
• The Taliban regime had turned down U.S. demand to hand over al-Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden, who plotted the attacks.
• Inside Afghanistan, the NATO coalition troops led by the U.S. dislodged the Taliban regime and established a transitional government.
• The U.S. rejected an offer from the Taliban to surrender and vowed to defeat the insurgents in every corner of Afghanistan.
• Other western powers helped Afghanistan to build a centralised democratic system and institutions. But that neither ended the war nor stabilised the country.

 

Why is the U.S. pulling back?

• The U.S. had reached the conclusion that the war is unwinnable.
• President Barack Obama, had promised to bring American troops back home from Afghanistan. But the U.S. wanted a face-saving exit.
• In 2015, Obama had sent a representative to the first-ever meeting between the Taliban and the Afghan government that was hosted by Pakistan.
• Later, President Donald Trump appointed a special envoy for Afghanistan, to directly negotiate with the Taliban.
• It led to the Doha 2020 agreement, between the U.S. and the insurgents.
• In the agreement, the Trump administration promised that it would withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.
• President Joe Biden endorsed the Trump-Taliban deal, but pushed the deadline for withdrawal to September 11.

 

What are the terms of the Trump-Taliban deal?

• The Doha deal dealt with four aspects of the conflict — violence, foreign troops, intra-Afghan peace talks and the use of Afghan soil by terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
• According to the agreement,
  • Taliban promised to reduce violence, join intra-Afghan peace talks and cut all ties with foreign terrorist groups
  • S. pledged to withdraw all its troops, roughly 12,000 at the time of the signing of the agreement in February 2020, by May 1, 2021.

 

What lies ahead for Afghanistan after U.S. exit?

• After the agreement was signed, the S. put pressure on the Afghan government to release thousands of Taliban prisoners — a key Taliban precondition for starting intra-Afghan talks.
• Talks between Taliban representatives and the Afghan government began in Doha in September 2020 but did not reach any breakthrough.
• At present, the peace process is frozen.
• The Taliban reduced hostilities against foreign troops but continued to attack Afghan forces even after the agreement was signed.
• Kabul maintains that the Pakistan support for the Taliban is allowing the insurgents to overcome military pressure and carry forward with their agenda.

 

What does Pakistan want?

• Pakistan was one of the three countries that had recognised the Taliban regime in the 1990s.
• The Taliban captured much of the country with help from Pakistan’s ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence.)
• After the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan, under pressure from the Bush administration, cut formal ties with the Taliban and joined America’s war on terror.
• But Pakistan played a double game.
• It provided shelter to the Taliban’s Rahbari Shura, a group composed of their top leaders.
• In Pakistan, the Taliban regrouped, raised money and recruits, planned military strategy and staged a comeback in Afghanistan.
• The fractious Kabul government, faced with corruption allegations, incompetence, and the excesses of the invading forces, made matters easier for the Taliban.
• A violent military takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban is expected.
• Pakistan wants to check India’s influence in Afghanistan and bring the Taliban to Kabul.
• But a violent takeover, like in the 1990s, would lack international acceptability, leaving Afghanistan unstable for a foreseeable future.
• In such a scenario, Pakistan could face another influx of refugees from Afghanistan and a strengthening of anti-Pakistan terror groups, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban.
• Thus, Pakistan would prefer the Taliban being accommodated in power through negotiations and a peaceful settlement, which would also allow Rawalpindi to stabilise its conflict-ridden western border.

 

Why is India reaching out to the Taliban?

• India made contacts with the Taliban in Doha.
• In the past, India chose not to engage the Taliban (New Delhi had backed the Northern Alliance) and the costs were dear when the Taliban was in power. This time, New Delhi is testing another policy.
• This signals acknowledgement from the Indian side that the Taliban would play a critical role in Afghanistan in the coming years.
• India has three critical areas in dealing with the Taliban.
  • protecting its investments, which run into billions of rupees, in Afghanistan
  • preventing a future Taliban regime from being a pawn of Rawalpindi;
  • making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get support from the Taliban.

 

Is the Afghanistan government doomed?

• The American intelligence community has concluded, that Kabul could fall within six months.
• American withdrawal has turned the balance of power in the battleground in favour of the Taliban.
• There could be three scenarios, any nation planning to deal with Afghanistan should be prepared for all three scenarios.
  • A political settlement in which the Taliban and the government agree to some power-sharing mechanism and jointly shape the future of Afghanistan. As of now, this looks like a remote possibility.
  • Two, an all-out civil war may be possible, in which the government, economically backed and militarily trained by the West, holds on to its positions in key cities and the Taliban expand its reach in the countryside, while other ethnic militias fight for their fiefs. This is already unfolding.
  • A third scenario would be of the Taliban taking over the country.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/what-lies-ahead-for-afghanistan-after-us-exit/article35125897.ece